Insurgents Identified: The Green Men of VKontakte

This article was originally published on UkrainianPolicy.com

Ukrainian intelligence produced and presented a dossier of photographs to the OSCE last week. The images, and official accusations, point to Russian “sabotage-reconnaissance groups” being involved in the recent armed insurgency in eastern Ukraine – Donetsk region specifically. According to a New York Times article, the photos and their descriptions were “endorsed by the Obama administration,” but who are these men? With the power of crowdsourcing, but mostly with the power of social networking and public profiles, the identities of a series of Russian insurgents in Donetsk have been uncovered. Men have been comparing the size of their guns since the invention of gunpowder, and thankfully these few decided to flaunt just that. Publicly. On the internet.

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From the identified militants, a few notes can be made from the following gunmen who appear to be connected to the raids in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. For one, not all are from Russia. While some may be local radicals, others appear to come from Belorechensk in Russia, or have connections to related neo-Cossack groups. This does not necessarily exonerate Russian state involvement, however. While it’s been known that military veterans and Russian ‘tourists’ have been actively involved for some time, the presence of Registered Cossacks of the Russian Federation connects Russia officially to the ongoing crisis. Registered Cossack organizations enjoy financial and organizational support from the authorities, including monthly salary as police auxiliaries. This, of course, isn’t the first controversial deployment of Cossack forces, who made a name for themselves on the world stage enforcing the law in Sochi.

Another point of interest is the insignia seen on a number of the gunmen. For clarity’s sake, the symbol is that of Andrei Shkuro‘s ‘Terek Wolf Company’, a detachment of White emigre Cossacks who fought for Nazi Germany during the second world war.

So who is involved in the Ukrainian invasion? Let’s take a look.

Continue reading “Insurgents Identified: The Green Men of VKontakte”

Insurgents Identified: The Green Men of VKontakte

Ukrainian intelligence produced and presented a dossier of photographs to the OSCE last week. The images, and official accusations, point to Russian “sabotage-reconnaissance groups” being involved in the recent armed insurgency in eastern Ukraine – Donetsk region specifically. According to a New York Times article, the photos and their descriptions were “endorsed by the Obama administration,” but who are these men? With the power of crowdsourcing, but mostly with the power of social networking and public profiles, the identities of a series of Russian insurgents in Donetsk have been uncovered. Men have been comparing the size of their guns since the invention of gunpowder, and thankfully these few decided to flaunt just that. Publicly. On the internet.

8LtXv_1Zg9U
‘Terek Wolf Company’ insignia seen on several militants

From the identified militants, a few notes can be made from the following gunmen who appear to be connected to the raids in Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. For one, not all are from Russia. While some may be local radicals, others appear to come from Belorechensk in Russia, or have connections to related neo-Cossack groups. This does not necessarily exonerate Russian state involvement, however. While it’s been known that military veterans and Russian ‘tourists’ have been actively involved for some time, the presence of Registered Cossacks of the Russian Federation connects Russia officially to the ongoing crisis. Registered Cossack organizations enjoy financial and organizational support from the authorities, including monthly salary as police auxiliaries. This, of course, isn’t the first controversial deployment of Cossack forces, who made a name for themselves on the world stage enforcing the law in Sochi.

Another point of interest is the insignia seen on a number of the gunmen. For clarity’s sake, the symbol is that of Andrei Shkuro‘s ‘Terek Wolf Company’, a detachment of White emigre Cossacks who fought for Nazi Germany during the second world war.

So who is involved in the Ukrainian invasion? Let’s take a look.

Evgeny “Dingo” Ponomarev

ponom2

Ponomarev is a 39 year old native of Belorechensk, Russia, in the Kuban region. Pictured above, he is a Registered Cossack with full police badge. He is active in the Terek Cossack community, and featured in many of the photos recently presented by CNN and the BBC detailing the same group of insurgents appearing in Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. At this moment there is no confirmation that he is directly related to self-declared Sloviansk mayor Vyacheslav Ponomarev, though they are pictured together.

Profile: Евгений Пономарев

Alexander Ganchev

ganichev

While Ganchev’s profile is littered with cat pictures and memes, in 2013 through to January 2014 there are many photos of him in combat training, including with sniper rifles, assault rifles, heavy machine guns, and rocket launchers. Recent photos from April show him with members who seized buildings in Donetsk. Groups he is a member of include Berkut support, The Supreme Council of the people of Ukraine and Russia (which asks for “practical” assistance in imposing referendums), Crimean “self-defense” groups, and airsoft rifle groups in Crimea (which appears to be a front to gather militants and buy weapons). His current city is listed as Horlivka, Ukraine, and he appears to be from Makiivka.

Profile: Александр Ганичев

Igor Georgievsky

igor1

His hometown is listed as Simferopol and photos show him in Sevastopol, and in group shots with other self-defense militants. Above he is seen at the Sloviansk airfield in Donetsk region (here’s video of the airfield with the same helicopters). He’s in the ‘People’s Liberation Movement in Ukraine‘ (which calls to ‘liberate’ the ‘western occupied colony’ from ‘invaders’), Russian Spring, and another group which calls to retake Odessa from ‘fascism’. He is seen with the Terek Wolf Company insignia.

Update: Since this article broke, Georgievsky has issued a statement of pride that he and his “brothers of the list, and those who have not yet got there” gained attention.

Profile: Игорь Георгиевский

Tikhon Karetniy

tikhon1

Like Ponomarev, Karetniy is a member of the Belorechensk Cossack community in Russia. A photo posted on the community page details the group involved in the seizures in Sloviansk called “Terek Wolf Sotnia“. His profile is relatively new (registered in February, active more recently) so it cannot be confirmed that his identity is real, however, he does have the social connections with other members involved with a higher degree of authenticity. It’s likely this is him pictured with Ponomarev.

Update: Karetniy has since deleted all personal information and photos from his page.

Profile: Тихон Каретный

Zheka Kovalyov

zheka

Kovalyov is another from Belorechensk, Russia. His photo albums contain many swastikas and neo-Nazi or ultranationalist imagery. Photos dating back 2 years show him in paramilitary garb, while his profile picture appears to be  ‘self-defense’ force paramilitary in Crimea. In another photo he appears with Karetniy while wearing the ‘Terek Wolf Company’ badge, who is also an insurgent in Donetsk with a Russian Cossack connection.

Profile: Zheka Kovalyov

Evgen Zloy

zloy1

Photos show him carrying an automatic rifle in front government buildings in Slovinansk. His profile lists him as being a Simferopol native, and is a member of a Simferopol Don Cossack group. Photos also show what appears to be a swastika pendant, and Russian ultra-nationalist graphics.

Profile: Евген Злой

Edvard Pitersky

edvard1

Pitersky lists himself as residing in Kharkiv and a member of the Oplot fight club and ‘Polite People of Kharkiv‘ (a reference to the ‘Green Men’ from Russia). He is ironically a member of the ‘Anti-fascist movement of the South-East‘ as well as the ‘White Legion‘ neo-Nazi community.

Profile: Edvard Pitersky

Dima Kharkovsky

dima1

Current city is listed as Sloviansk. He appears to be a local and a member of Gubarev’s militia.

Profile: Dima Kharkovsky

Ignat “Topaz” Kromskoy

topaz1

Topaz is a sort of celebrity in internet circles. He was placed under house arrest on March 29 for his involvement in the March 1st raid on the Kharkiv Regional State Administration building. On April 7, Topaz fled house arrest, cutting off his monitoring bracelet. Topaz has since given interviews with the Russian channel LifeNews, and spoken about the current ‘guerrilla struggle’ and need to use firearms to capture buildings. Pictures with assault rifles, BDU, and St. George ribbon indicate it’s likely he has been involved in the current insurgency in Donetsk or Luhansk since his arrest.

Profile: Ignat Kromskoy

Sergey Anastasov

serganast

This profile is less straightforward, but the photos appear to sync up. Anastasov is from Simferopol. Photos include him with various firearms. The above photo makes no indication on which building he is in, so it’s possible he was only involved in Crimea.

Profile: Sergey Anastasov

Anton Morozov

morozov1

From Irkutsk, Russia. His main profile shows him in military fatigues in what appears to be barracks. Photos include neo-Nazi imagery (burning an Israeli flag) and Eurasian symbols. He appears to be pictured with Zloy, above. Correction: Morozov denies this is him, and it’s entirely possible that it was a convenient juxtaposition with a lookalike.

Profile: Anton Morozov

Southeast Statistics

A Report on KIIS Polling Data From April 8-16, 2014

An opinion poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) was recently conducted on the views and opinions of residents of South-Eastern Ukraine. The poll was conducted April 8-16 through 3232 respondents in eight regions of Ukraine (Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk).

The Donbas Conflict

18.1% of Donetsk and 24.2% of Luhansk support the recent armed seizures of administrative buildings in the Donbas region, while surrounding provinces overwhelmingly disapprove of the current situation. 72% of Donetsk and 58.3% of Luhansk residents disapprove of the current actions. Roughly 25% in the Donbas region said they would attend secessionist rallies in favor of joining Russia.

Supporters in Donetsk were mostly split in their justification of the armed occupations, but Luhansk leaned towards seeing the militant actions as no different from what occurred in Kyiv and the west. Donetsk and Luhansk also held the lowest belief that Russia has organized the separatist occupations, and were the only two regions where the majority did not believe Russia was illegally interfering in the internal affairs of Ukraine.

Crisis Solutions

Most in the Southeast believe that the disarmament and disbanding of illegal radical groups is crucial to preserving national unity. Secondary solutions are economic, both internal (including supporting local business) and with regard to Russia (and establishing dialogue). Luhansk is the only region which favors local economy over the disbanding of radicals.

Independence & Secessionism

89.1% of the Southeast believes Ukraine should be an independent state, but with most feeling Russia and Ukraine should share open borders without visa restrictions. In contrast, 8.4% are in favor of Ukraine and Russia uniting into a single state; this sentiment is strongest in Donetsk (12.4%) and Luhansk (15.9%). Kherson showed the least support for joining Russia, with less than one percent favoring such an arrangement.

These figures are considerably lower than those conducted by KIIS in February, where 33% of Donetsk and 24% of Luhansk favored a Russo-Ukrainian state union.

However, when asked if one would favor their local region seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia, unification sentiment nearly doubles to 15.4%. No single region supported secessionism by a majority, but the Donbas again led the pack with 27.5% (of Donetsk) and 30.3% (of Luhansk) favoring a Crimean scenario.

Federalization

Only 11.8% of the Southeast supports federalization as a solution to preserving national cohesion. In Donetsk, 19.1% and Luhansk, 21.6% support the devolutionary solution. Other regions show considerably lower, mostly single-digit support.

When asked what system they prefer without qualification, on the whole, 64.3% of the Southeast believes Ukraine should remain a unitary state, while 24.8% favor federalization. Donetsk and Luhansk specifically favor a unitary structure (51.7% and 55.6%, respectively) over federalization (38.4% and 41.9%). Federalization was least supported in Kherson (6.9%),  Mykolaiv (10.7%), and Dnipropetrovsk (11.4%); unitarianism was also most strongly desired in the southern provinces of Mykolaiv (81%) and Kherson (87.4%). All provinces overwhelmingly support the devolutionary measure to allow governors to be locally elected, as opposed to appointed by the central government.

Russian Language

11% of the Russian-speaking portion of the country view introducing Russian as the second official language will help the current situation. Donetsk and Luhansk led support with a mere 17.1% each. Only 23.1% feel that the rights of Russian speakers are violated (versus 71.5%), most sentiment of which is concentrated in Donetsk (39.9%). When asked what they found attractive about Russia, while most of the Southeast said nothing does, notably the least compelling reason was the cultural connection. Altogether, alleged cultural-linguistic motivating factors in the region by media sources appear to be overblown.

Civil War?

46% feel that a civil war is possible (responding ‘rather’ or ‘definitely’ yes), while 32.7% feel war won’t occur. Donetsk and Luhansk (the Donbas) were the only regions where the majority felt civil war was possible. Dnipropetrovsk was the most convicted (‘definitely’) that civil war would take place (20.3%), but no region was equally as convinced it would not (Odessa being the greatest with 16.5% feeling civil war ‘certainly’ would not occur). When asked the most likely thing to cause anxiety, more were concerned with crime and the economy than all else.

Despite growing fear in crime and violence, and distrust in government institutions, 83% are against the right to bear arms with uniform figures across all regions. Dnipropetrovsk held the highest favor of the initiative with 10.7%. Only 4.4% said they would take up arms in the event of a civil war.

A Russian Invasion

With regards to Russian intervention in Ukraine, 19.3% of Donetsk and Luhansk support a Russian incursion, nearly twice the Southeastern average. Aside from the aforementioned two and Kharkiv (70%), 4/5ths of respondents in all other regions outright opposed Russian intervention. Kherson, which borders Crimea, held the greatest fear that Russia would invade (45.3%).

When asked what would prompt residents to take up arms, only 5.3% in the Southeast said a Russian invasion would push them to arm themselves, but twice as many would fight in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. However, over half in the Southeast would fight if there was a threat to their safety or to that of their family. When asked specifically what they would do in the event of a Russian invasion, 20.9% said they would fight while 7% said they would welcome Russian forces. Most said they would stay at home and not involve themselves in military matters. Of course, this data includes all respondents and not only men of fighting age.

Distrust in Government

In the entire Southeast, 45% view the central government under Turchynov to be in varying degrees a legitimate entity, while over 50% do not. The figure of general certainty that the government is illegitimate is most concentrated in Donetsk (74%) and Luhansk (70%) while the highest levels of support came from Odessa (38.5%), Dnipropetrovsk (39.4%), and Mykolaiv (55.1%). 36.8% of the Southeast also considers Parliament itself to be an illegal organ of the state, but more respondents found it to be legal (42.3%). Despite this, majority of all regions, however, found deposed president Viktor Yanukovych to not be the legal president of the country.

Revolution or Coup?

46% of those in the Southeast consider the Ukrainian Revolution to have been a coup organized by the West, while 41.7% view the events as a revolution against a tyrannical dictator. Donetsk and Luhansk are the only regions where a majority hold the view that a coup occurred, while Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Kherson held the opposite, pro-revolutionary view via majority.

Presidential elections

In all regions but the Donbas, pro-Euromaidan oligarch Petro Poroshenko dominates preliminary election polls. In Donetsk Poroshenko (10.4%) ranks second to Tihipko (12.4%), and in Luhansk he ranks third with 7.7% as Tihipko and Dobkin split the pro-Russian vote with roughly 9% each. A third of respondents in the Southeast so far have not yet made up their minds, and 11.5% say they will boycott the elections.

 

1.1 Do you consider legal or illegal the following organs of the central government in Ukraine?
Acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Sure (a) that the authority is legitimate

16.6

23.3

6.4

18.3

7.9

33.0

20.7

18.1

19.6

Most believe that the authority is legitimate

13.7

16.1

7.9

14.3

6.9

22.1

17.8

12.6

26.5

It is difficult to say for sure, I believe that authority is partly legal, partly illegal

15.1

16.8

9.9

19.5

12.2

18.1

19.0

13.6

21.3

Most believe that the authority is not legitimate

18.7

17.3

21.0

14.1

20.1

8.7

21.0

20.8

18.8

Sure (a) that the authority is not legitimate

32.1

19.3

53.0

29.1

49.9

15.1

17.3

30.4

13.1

Do not know / refuse

3.8

7.2

1.7

4.7

3.0

3.0

4.2

4.5

0.7

1.2 Do you consider legal or illegal the following organs of the central government in Ukraine?
The Government headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Sure (a) that the authority is legitimate

17.0

24.8

5.7

18.5

8.4

34.7

21.5

18.8

19.3

Most believe that the authority is legitimate

16.6

22.8

10.9

16.5

8.4

22.3

19.3

14.6

30.2

It is difficult to say for sure, I believe that authority is partly legal, partly illegal

13.3

13.1

9.4

20.7

9.7

14.9

16.0

11.6

20.3

Most believe that the authority is not legitimate

17.6

15.1

18.6

13.1

21.8

9.7

21.0

19.3

18.3

Sure (a) that the authority is not legitimate

32.0

19.6

53.5

26.2

48.6

14.6

18.5

31.4

11.1

Do not know / refuse

3.4

4.7

2.0

4.9

3.0

3.7

3.7

4.2

0.7

 

1.3 Do you consider legal or illegal the following organs of the central government in Ukraine?
Verkhovna Rada

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Sure (a) that the authority is legitimate

20.7

25.2

10.9

20.2

16.9

37.2

23.7

21.8

25.7

Most believe that the authority is legitimate

21.6

26.0

21.0

20.5

18.4

24.1

22.0

17.1

27.2

It is difficult to say for sure, I believe that authority is partly legal, partly illegal

17.2

13.9

16.6

23.2

13.9

15.1

21.0

15.1

25.5

Most believe that the authority is not legitimate

13.5

12.6

14.4

10.1

13.2

7.7

16.0

15.8

13.9

Sure (a) that the authority is not legitimate

23.3

16.8

35.1

21.5

33.5

12.7

13.3

25.0

6.7

Do not know / refuse

3.8

5.4

2.0

4.4

4.2

3.2

4.0

5.2

1.0

2. Do you think Viktor Yanukovych is the legal president of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely yes

10.0

6.9

18.8

8.1

12.2

6.9

5.9

6.9

3.2

Rather yes

9.6

7.9

13.6

7.7

15.4

3.7

9.6

5.9

5.9

It is difficult to say for sure, partly yes, partly no

8.5

5.0

7.9

9.6

12.9

4.5

11.6

8.9

6.9

Rather no

18.1

13.4

23.8

17.5

17.6

16.9

18.0

17.6

15.1

Certainly not

51.7

64.6

34.4

55.6

40.0

64.0

50.4

58.7

68.1

Do not know / refuse

2.2

2.2

1.5

1.5

2.0

4.0

4.4

2.0

0.7

3. You think that the events on the Maidan in Kiev last winter – it’s …

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

… Citizens protesting against the corruption and tyranny of dictatorship Yanukovych

41.7

54.5

20.0

43.7

26.8

60.3

50.1

47.5

61.9

… an armed coup organized opposition through the West

46.0

31.2

70.5

38.3

61.3

23.6

37.0

42.6

30.0

Or … something else?

1.8

1.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

3.5

2.7

2.0

2.5

DO NOT KNOW / HARD TO SAY

9.7

11.1

8.2

15.6

9.9

11.9

9.4

7.7

4.7

Refusal to answer

0.7

1.7

0.2

1.0

0.0

0.7

0.7

0.2

1.0

4. Do you feel personally guilty for the actions of Yanukovych?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely yes

3.9

7.2

2.5

2.7

3.0

5.7

2.5

4.0

4.5

Rather yes

7.4

10.6

4.7

7.4

8.2

7.4

6.4

7.9

7.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly feel partially not feel

9.1

10.9

6.4

9.6

10.9

10.2

6.4

7.9

15.8

Rather no

20.3

21.5

21.5

22.5

22.3

20.1

21.7

15.1

14.6

Certainly not

58.0

47.3

64.1

56.5

54.1

54.8

62.0

64.6

57.2

Refusal to answer

1.2

2.5

0.7

1.2

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.5

0.7

5. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Viktor Yanukovych had to disperse Maidan with force”?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely agree

19.3

13.1

31.7

11.9

25.1

10.2

10.6

21.0

14.9

Rather, I agree

12.8

8.4

16.3

10.9

20.8

5.0

9.4

14.4

10.1

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

15.5

11.6

15.1

13.3

19.1

13.6

17.3

15.6

23.3

Rather not agree

17.7

22.5

15.6

23.2

12.4

17.9

20.0

15.3

13.1

Certainly disagree

33.2

42.6

19.6

37.8

22.1

52.1

40.2

32.9

37.6

Refusal to answer

1.6

1.7

1.7

3.0

0.5

1.2

2.5

0.7

1.0

6. Who, in your opinion, is responsible for the casualties on the Maidan?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Viktor Yanukovych

45.1

54.0

28.7

44.2

29.5

64.5

50.9

51.7

65.6

Party of Regions

17.2

14.1

9.9

13.8

13.6

25.6

26.9

19.1

34.4

Law enforcement agencies, “Berkut”

8.2

7.9

3.0

8.1

7.2

10.2

16.5

7.7

12.6

Protesters

10.3

7.7

10.1

8.4

13.2

10.2

12.3

10.9

11.4

Opposition leaders

37.5

24.5

57.2

27.9

47.6

27.0

33.8

33.9

24.8

Occident

18.4

11.1

28.5

12.1

22.6

8.7

14.1

22.8

11.6

Russia

4.8

4.0

1.2

6.9

4.7

5.7

5.4

5.9

13.4

Other

2.1

1.7

2.5

2.7

2.0

1.7

2.7

1.5

1.0

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

11.2

11.4

8.2

17.8

14.1

9.2

11.9

10.4

8.4

Refusal to answer

1.3

1.7

0.7

1.0

2.2

0.5

2.2

0.2

1.7

7.1.1 Do you think the state & Berkut justified the use of weapons on Maidan?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

21.5

9.9

35.1

9.4

28.3

9.2

16.5

27.2

21.0

No

68.5

79.2

53.7

81.5

54.3

86.4

75.6

66.3

71.3

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

9.0

8.7

10.6

8.4

16.4

4.0

6.2

6.4

6.9

Refusal to answer

1.0

2.2

0.5

0.7

1.0

0.5

1.7

0.0

0.7

7.1.2 Do you think protesters on Maidan were justified in using weapons?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

7.5

7.7

3.0

10.6

3.5

8.9

7.9

11.6

14.6

No

84.2

82.2

88.1

80.5

86.8

85.9

83.0

83.4

79.7

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

7.4

8.2

8.4

8.1

8.9

4.5

7.4

5.0

5.2

Refusal to answer

0.9

2.0

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.7

0.0

0.5

7.2 On this card are listed opinions regarding responsibility of law enforcement and “Berkut” for the victims on the Maidan. Which of these opinions is closest to you?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporozh-Skye

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Law enforcement agencies and “Berkut” were following orders, and took an oath, so the responsibility for the victims on the Maidan are those who gave them orders

64.7

59.9

73.0

55.3

66.3

55.1

58.0

71.5

66.3

Law enforcement agencies and “Berkut” knowingly performed criminal orders and carry the same responsibility for the victims on the Maidan, as well as those who gave them orders

21.0

23.5

12.4

26.9

15.1

30.5

29.6

19.1

25.7

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

11.0

10.1

11.1

16.5

14.9

12.9

8.6

8.7

4.5

Refusal to answer

3.3

6.4

3.5

1.2

3.7

1.5

3.7

0.7

3.5

8.1 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the “Right Sector”?

“Right sector” is … One of dozens of marginalized groups, and has no real weight and influence in the government, but needs to be disarmed?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

30.6

24.5

36.4

26.7

40.7

27.0

29.1

28.0

27.0

Rather, I agree

22.1

24.3

19.8

18.0

22.1

26.3

21.7

22.3

26.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

24.0

25.5

24.0

24.4

14.6

25.6

26.9

22.3

34.2

Rather not agree

7.8

7.7

8.7

5.9

3.7

6.2

8.1

12.4

5.7

Strongly disagree

5.0

5.7

5.2

5.2

2.7

3.5

5.9

5.4

4.2

Do not know / refused to answer

10.6

12.4

5.9

19.8

16.1

11.4

8.1

9.7

2.7

8.2 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the “right sector”?

“Right Sector” … is a major military formation, with influence in the government and a threat to the citizens and the integrity of the country?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

32.6

22.8

50.2

24.7

41.9

19.4

26.9

26.2

30.9

Rather, I agree

20.3

21.5

22.8

14.3

21.1

15.6

17.0

21.5

25.0

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

20.1

20.5

13.4

24.4

13.4

25.3

24.0

23.0

30.9

Rather not agree

10.1

11.4

5.4

9.6

5.5

15.6

16.3

13.4

7.9

Strongly disagree

7.1

12.4

3.2

8.4

4.5

11.7

8.4

7.2

2.0

Do not know / refused to answer

9.6

11.4

5.0

18.5

13.6

12.4

7.4

8.7

3.2

 

8.3 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following

statements regarding the “Right Sector”?

“Right Sector” is … Political party nationalist persuasion?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

24.8

18.1

30.9

21.2

29.5

27.5

21.0

22.3

29.2

Rather, I agree

22.3

19.8

17.1

16.8

22.6

29.5

25.4

29.5

27.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

25.1

31.7

25.5

27.4

13.9

20.6

26.9

21.5

32.2

Rather not agree

9.5

8.4

11.6

10.4

8.7

6.5

11.9

8.9

4.0

Strongly disagree

7.9

9.7

8.4

7.2

6.7

6.0

6.2

9.9

4.2

Do not know / refused to answer

10.5

12.4

6.4

17.0

18.6

9.9

8.6

7.9

3.2

8.4 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the “Right Sector”?

“Right Sector” is a myth …?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

2.4

4.0

1.0

2.7

2.5

1.5

3.0

2.2

2.5

Rather, I agree

3.1

4.2

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.0

4.7

1.7

6.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

22.3

22.5

24.5

21.7

14.9

30.5

24.9

14.1

36.4

Rather not agree

20.4

18.3

21.8

15.3

17.4

20.1

23.0

26.7

15.6

Strongly disagree

39.4

39.6

42.1

39.3

38.5

33.5

31.6

46.8

34.9

Do not know / refused to answer

12.3

11.4

8.2

18.5

24.3

12.4

12.8

8.4

4.5

  

8.5 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the “Right Sector”?

“Right Sector” are … provocateurs acting in the interests of Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

4.8

8.7

3.7

5.9

3.0

4.7

4.4

3.0

5.2

Rather, I agree

5.6

8.2

3.5

6.2

4.5

6.0

6.9

3.0

11.4

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

23.1

25.5

20.3

26.4

12.7

26.1

25.7

22.0

36.4

Rather not agree

19.2

17.6

23.5

13.1

15.9

19.1

21.0

21.5

15.3

Strongly disagree

35.6

28.2

42.1

27.9

44.4

30.3

32.1

40.8

27.7

Do not know / refused to answer

11.6

11.9

6.9

20.5

19.6

13.9

9.9

9.7

4.0

9. Do you think a civil war is possible in Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely yes

16.4

20.3

19.3

16.3

13.9

17.4

12.6

11.6

17.8

Rather yes

29.6

24.3

36.6

24.9

38.0

27.8

25.7

26.2

28.0

It is difficult to say for sure, partly yes, partly no

19.8

15.3

15.3

20.5

23.3

23.8

22.2

22.3

26.5

Rather no

20.2

25.2

17.3

20.2

14.4

21.1

20.2

25.2

14.4

Certainly not

12.5

13.6

9.2

16.3

9.7

9.4

16.5

13.9

12.9

Refusal to answer

1.5

1.2

2.2

1.7

0.7

0.5

2.7

0.7

0.5

 10. Some people believe that you need to allow Ukrainian citizens to freely acquire weapons. Others oppose this initiative. What is your opinion?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support the initiative

4.1

6.7

3.5

2.5

2.7

3.5

3.2

5.4

3.5

Rather, support the initiative

4.0

4.0

4.2

2.2

7.4

4.5

3.5

3.0

3.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

7.7

6.4

6.4

8.1

7.7

9.9

6.7

10.4

8.2

Rather, do not support the initiative

14.0

11.1

10.6

14.1

20.6

12.4

17.5

16.1

11.6

Certainly do not support the initiative

69.1

69.8

74.5

72.6

60.5

69.5

67.7

64.6

71.8

Refusal to answer

1.0

2.0

0.7

0.5

1.0

0.2

1.5

0.5

1.7

11. What today is more likely cause you anxiety?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Rampant banditry in the country

43.1

43.3

51.5

37.5

29.8

48.1

46.2

40.1

42.6

Inattention to the problems of the central government of the Southeast

16.8

8.7

19.8

15.6

22.8

23.6

15.8

13.6

22.3

The growth of radicalism and nationalism

19.1

10.6

22.5

13.1

26.6

20.8

19.3

19.1

24.5

One-sided coverage in the Ukrainian media issues in the region and the country

8.2

5.7

11.9

7.9

7.2

6.0

6.2

10.6

5.7

Introduction of visas with Russia

7.3

4.0

9.4

3.0

7.2

3.2

5.9

11.1

14.1

Joining NATO

9.6

2.5

15.3

5.2

10.7

5.0

12.8

10.1

12.1

Disabling Russian TV channels

5.0

2.0

6.4

2.5

3.7

4.0

4.9

10.6

3.5

The risk of losing their jobs

18.6

9.9

24.5

16.8

20.3

23.1

24.0

15.8

12.4

Non-payment of salaries and pensions

24.6

13.6

32.4

26.7

28.0

30.3

31.9

18.6

11.9

The collapse of the Ukrainian economy

39.2

27.5

44.3

32.8

42.7

48.4

40.0

36.9

53.2

Disruption of economic ties with Russia

19.7

8.2

26.7

10.1

36.2

13.9

11.1

24.0

23.5

Growth of separatist sentiment

13.7

10.9

12.6

9.6

12.7

21.3

14.1

14.9

23.5

Imposition of one language

6.5

2.0

9.4

2.5

12.7

4.5

4.0

7.7

7.9

Threat of civil war

31.7

26.7

40.6

27.7

28.5

29.3

31.4

24.5

47.8

Threat of invasion by the Russian aggressor

16.9

17.1

6.4

15.6

10.7

36.2

20.2

16.3

45.3

Other

1.8

3.2

1.0

2.7

0.7

0.5

2.0

2.2

1.7

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

1.8

2.0

0.7

3.5

1.5

2.0

1.5

2.7

1.0

Refusal to answer

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.0

12. What concrete steps do you expect from the central government to preserve the unity of the country?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Disarmament and disbandment of illegal radical groups

37.8

34.4

46.5

28.4

33.5

48.4

35.3

31.9

48.0

Marking a clear outlook for the economy of the Southeast (support enterprises in the region)

22.4

11.4

24.8

21.7

36.0

23.1

22.7

20.8

23.3

Establishment of a parliamentary coalition with the Party of Regions

3.9

3.2

4.2

4.0

4.0

3.5

6.2

3.2

2.0

The involvement of representatives of ministerial positions Southeast

10.8

3.0

16.1

6.9

15.9

8.7

10.6

12.6

9.4

Balanced cultural policy according to national circumstances and mentality of the inhabitants of the Southeast

15.2

11.1

15.6

11.9

24.1

20.1

14.3

12.6

16.6

Dissociation of power from the nationalist and radical rhetoric

16.3

11.6

21.5

10.1

22.1

21.8

10.1

15.8

17.8

Recovery (economic and political) dialogue with Russia

23.0

13.9

29.7

19.8

28.5

18.1

20.7

24.8

25.5

Federalization of Ukraine

11.8

5.9

19.1

5.7

21.6

5.5

6.7

13.4

4.7

Introducing a second state language

11.0

4.0

17.1

8.1

17.1

4.0

7.4

12.9

11.6

Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada

14.5

10.1

7.9

9.9

14.4

31.8

24.0

14.9

22.8

Early elections of President of Ukraine

17.6

15.6

10.9

15.6

13.2

27.0

26.7

19.8

28.5

Establishment of a permanent public dialogue between the southeast and central government

19.5

15.3

18.6

13.8

20.1

24.8

25.2

20.5

23.5

Distinguishing central government positions and interests of ordinary people in the region from his party and the oligarchic elite

13.4

8.7

13.4

9.6

16.4

27.0

11.6

10.4

25.2

Other

3.1

2.2

1.7

4.0

1.5

4.2

3.7

6.4

2.7

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

10.2

11.6

7.4

19.3

8.7

8.7

8.6

8.7

12.6

Refusal to answer

1.5

4.0

1.0

1.2

1.7

0.5

1.2

0.5

0.7

13.1 Do you support or do not support the actions of those who captured administrative buildings in your area with firearms?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support

5.7

5.4

9.4

1.0

12.2

3.0

2.0

3.7

1.7

Rather, support the initiative

6.0

3.7

8.7

3.5

12.2

4.0

3.5

6.2

1.0

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

10.4

6.4

8.4

9.1

15.6

9.7

7.9

16.8

11.6

Rather, do not support

16.7

15.6

18.8

17.0

19.1

15.6

18.0

14.4

9.9

Certainly do not support

60.1

68.1

53.2

68.9

39.2

66.3

67.7

58.4

72.0

Refusal to answer

1.2

0.7

1.5

0.5

1.7

1.5

1.0

0.5

3.7

13.2 How do you justify the armed capture of administrative buildings?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Capture buildings can be justified because no other way to draw attention to the center of the region’s problems do not

17.1

10.9

23.0

12.3

24.3

18.6

13.6

17.1

12.9

Can be justified, because at the time of the revolution in Kiev and Western regions of Ukraine have done the same

17.3

11.9

22.3

13.1

30.8

10.7

8.6

22.3

6.2

Under no circumstances does not justify armed seizure of administrative buildings, all problems must be solved only through diplomatic channels

61.4

69.3

52.5

67.9

41.7

69.7

73.1

57.7

77.2

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

5.0

7.2

4.0

8.9

6.0

3.5

3.2

3.5

3.7

Refusal to answer

1.0

1.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

1.7

1.7

 14. In your opinion, in addition to former President Yanukovych, should ministers, governors, prosecutors, and judges, who during his reign involved in corrupt practices and violations of the laws, be prosecuted?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly, we have

67.6

65.6

70.5

60.2

65.5

69.2

71.6

66.8

70.3

Rather, it should be

18.6

19.1

18.6

17.3

20.3

19.4

14.8

20.5

18.3

It is difficult to say for sure, should or should not

8.0

7.2

5.4

14.6

9.2

6.5

6.4

9.2

8.9

Rather, it should not

2.0

3.0

2.2

1.7

2.0

2.0

1.7

1.5

0.7

Clearly, should not

1.7

1.5

2.0

0.2

1.2

2.2

2.5

1.7

1.7

Refusal to answer

2.2

3.7

1.2

5.9

1.7

0.7

3.0

0.2

0.0

15.1 Some people believe that in order to overcome the problems there is a need to cooperate and bring to power big business. Others oppose such an initiative. What do you think?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support the involvement of representatives of large capital in positions of power

14.4

22.8

11.1

13.8

7.9

10.4

17.0

12.4

19.8

Rather, support

17.0

17.8

12.4

18.5

19.6

13.4

23.2

18.3

12.6

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

25.0

21.3

23.0

29.6

26.8

24.1

28.4

25.5

25.2

Rather, do not support

15.6

14.6

15.1

15.1

14.6

18.4

11.6

21.3

14.9

Certainly do not support the involvement of representatives of large capital in positions of power

25.4

20.8

35.1

21.2

27.0

32.5

17.5

20.8

25.7

Refusal to answer

2.5

2.7

3.2

1.7

4.0

1.2

2.2

1.7

1.7

 15.2 On this card describes the opinions about how now we need to deal with the oligarchs in Ukraine. Which of these opinions is closest to you?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Need to nationalize all the property owned by oligarchs

24.3

23.3

38.1

22.0

24.6

20.1

17.8

15.1

18.6

Only the need to nationalize the property, which was acquired by them illegally

41.2

40.3

35.1

40.2

48.1

37.5

44.2

47.0

36.9

Property should not be nationalized, but the oligarchs have to pay extra for the illegally obtained property

14.4

11.4

11.4

16.8

8.2

17.4

16.0

19.6

23.8

There should be a shadow capital amnesty

5.5

8.9

3.0

1.7

5.0

11.9

5.9

4.2

7.9

The State must respect private property and ensure its protection mechanism

4.3

5.0

3.7

4.0

2.2

5.2

4.7

4.7

6.4

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

9.5

8.2

7.9

15.1

10.7

7.4

11.4

9.2

6.4

Refusal to answer

0.9

3.0

0.7

0.2

1.2

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.0

16.1 Do you agree with that … between Ukraine and Russia there is a war?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

36.8

44.6

28.2

34.8

26.8

60.0

41.0

31.2

50.2

No

48.9

40.6

60.6

43.2

54.1

25.6

41.0

61.9

36.6

HARD TO SAY

13.6

14.1

10.9

21.5

15.9

14.1

17.0

6.9

12.9

Refusal to answer

0.8

0.7

0.2

0.5

3.2

0.2

1.0

0.0

0.2

16.2 Do you agree with that … Russia illegally interfere in the internal affairs of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

54.1

72.0

32.9

66.4

33.5

78.2

61.0

51.0

69.8

No

32.0

21.0

48.8

18.0

40.9

14.1

23.2

41.6

20.3

HARD TO SAY

12.8

6.4

17.8

15.1

20.8

7.4

14.6

6.9

9.7

Refusal to answer

1.1

0.5

0.5

0.5

4.7

0.2

1.2

0.5

0.2

16.3 Do you agree with that … Russia is an organizer of separatist rallies and seizure of administrative buildings in the south-east of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

38.3

55.7

17.3

41.0

21.3

60.3

47.7

35.1

60.4

No

41.4

29.2

59.9

30.9

51.6

21.1

30.9

51.7

21.8

HARD TO SAY

19.1

14.4

22.3

26.2

22.6

18.1

20.2

12.9

17.3

Refusal to answer

1.2

0.7

0.5

2.0

4.5

0.5

1.2

0.2

0.5

16.4 Do you agree with that … Russia fairly protects the interests of Russian-speaking citizens in the Southeast?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

32.6

21.0

47.0

19.5

44.2

14.6

30.6

36.6

23.5

No

49.9

65.6

33.4

53.3

31.8

71.5

52.3

53.0

61.1

HARD TO SAY

16.1

12.1

19.6

23.0

19.6

13.4

15.8

10.1

14.9

Refusal to answer

1.4

1.2

0.0

4.2

4.5

0.5

1.2

0.2

0.5

16.5 Do you agree that … Russia has no effect on what is happening in Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

18.1

16.1

23.5

11.1

18.4

12.9

16.3

19.1

21.5

No

63.2

70.3

54.2

65.4

48.6

72.5

65.9

72.3

64.1

HARD TO SAY

17.1

12.1

22.0

20.7

27.3

14.4

15.8

8.7

13.4

Refusal to answer

1.6

1.5

0.2

2.7

5.7

0.2

2.0

0.0

1.0

16.6 Do you agree with that … Russia is doing everything for the accession of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

40.7

50.2

35.6

39.5

31.0

58.6

41.7

35.9

44.3

No

35.0

33.7

39.9

26.7

29.0

21.6

34.6

47.3

30.4

HARD TO SAY

22.2

14.9

23.8

27.9

33.7

19.4

21.5

16.6

24.3

Refusal to answer

2.1

1.2

0.7

5.9

6.2

0.5

2.2

0.2

1.0

17. Do you consider the incursion of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely yes

19.7

24.0

19.3

19.0

14.4

21.3

17.8

18.6

25.0

Rather yes

26.6

24.3

29.0

25.7

29.0

28.0

24.2

25.5

28.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly yes, partly no

20.0

15.1

13.9

20.7

26.8

23.3

25.4

21.8

24.3

Rather no

17.3

20.3

18.8

18.0

15.4

12.9

14.3

19.8

9.7

Certainly not

14.8

13.6

18.6

15.1

11.9

13.9

15.6

13.6

12.4

Refusal to answer

1.5

2.7

0.5

1.5

2.5

0.5

2.7

0.7

0.5

8. You support or oppose the introduction of the Russian troops in Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support

5.6

3.7

9.9

0.7

6.9

3.5

2.7

7.7

3.0

Rather, support

6.1

1.5

9.4

3.5

12.4

3.0

4.2

7.9

1.7

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

11.8

5.9

13.1

9.6

23.1

5.5

11.4

13.9

7.2

Rather, do not support

15.9

15.3

18.8

17.0

17.4

9.2

14.6

17.1

8.9

Certainly do not support

58.4

69.6

47.5

66.7

36.0

77.9

64.4

53.2

78.7

Refusal to answer

2.2

4.0

1.2

2.5

4.2

1.0

2.7

0.2

0.5

19. What would make you take up arms?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Threat to you and your family

53.2

49.3

59.2

49.1

55.3

48.6

50.4

56.4

47.8

Threat to the territorial integrity of Ukraine

10.4

11.9

8.9

10.6

6.0

14.1

10.1

8.2

22.0

Threat your region from Kiev (civil war)

4.4

4.0

5.4

3.0

6.2

4.0

4.0

3.7

2.7

Threat to your region from Russia

5.4

7.9

1.7

5.7

4.2

10.2

3.5

6.7

9.9

Other

0.7

0.7

1.0

0.5

0.2

0.5

0.7

0.2

1.7

Nothing will make take up arms

31.1

29.2

30.9

33.1

27.3

31.3

35.1

30.2

35.4

HARD TO SAY

5.8

5.9

3.5

6.4

9.4

11.9

4.2

5.7

3.0

Refusal to answer

1.4

3.7

0.0

0.7

1.2

1.0

2.7

0.5

0.2

20.1 What would you like to see the relations between Ukraine and Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

They should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas, customs

14.6

15.1

7.2

14.6

7.7

30.3

23.0

16.6

16.1

Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states – with open borders without visas

74.5

78.7

79.7

74.8

72.7

62.0

68.4

70.5

80.4

Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state

8.4

4.0

12.4

4.4

15.9

4.2

5.9

11.1

0.7

HARD TO SAY

2.1

0.7

0.7

5.9

2.7

3.5

2.2

1.7

2.7

Refusal to answer

0.5

1.5

0.0

0.2

1.0

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

20.2 Do you support or do not support the view that your area should secede from Ukraine and join Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support

7.1

3.7

11.9

2.2

13.2

3.5

3.2

9.2

1.0

Rather, support

8.3

3.2

15.6

4.0

17.1

3.7

4.0

6.9

2.5

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

12.5

6.9

17.3

9.9

12.4

6.0

11.9

17.3

11.4

Rather, do not support

16.0

13.1

17.3

17.5

20.6

6.7

19.3

16.1

11.1

Certainly do not support

53.7

71.0

34.9

64.0

31.3

78.7

59.5

49.5

73.5

Refusal to answer

2.4

2.0

3.0

2.5

5.5

1.5

2.2

1.0

0.5

21. Are you ready to go out and support rallies in support of joining your region to Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

13.6

5.2

25.5

4.7

25.1

7.2

6.7

14.9

2.7

No

76.5

89.9

64.6

83.7

60.8

89.1

75.8

75.7

91.1

HARD TO SAY

8.1

3.7

8.4

8.4

11.7

3.5

12.6

9.2

5.4

Refusal to answer

1.8

1.2

1.5

3.2

2.5

0.2

4.9

0.2

0.7

22. When Russian troops invaded the south-east of Ukraine … you intend?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Put up armed resistance to the aggressor

20.9

26.0

11.9

25.9

10.7

31.0

24.9

19.6

36.9

Welcome the introduction of Russian troops

7.0

2.2

12.6

2.5

11.7

4.7

4.9

8.4

1.2

To join the Russian army

2.1

1.2

3.5

0.7

2.5

0.0

2.0

3.5

0.5

Stay at home and not to interfere

46.9

44.1

55.4

48.6

43.2

36.2

39.5

49.8

47.8

HARD TO SAY

20.5

24.8

15.6

19.0

26.1

26.3

23.7

17.1

12.9

Refusal to answer

2.5

1.7

1.0

3.2

6.0

1.7

4.9

1.7

0.7

23. What attracts you in Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Culture

13.4

9.4

14.6

10.4

7.7

10.4

18.5

18.3

17.8

Stability of the economic situation

25.7

11.1

41.8

13.8

34.7

19.6

22.2

28.2

16.3

High salaries and pensions

25.3

9.9

39.6

17.0

30.3

26.6

17.5

32.9

17.6

Stability of power

21.2

10.1

37.9

12.6

24.8

23.6

19.0

17.1

9.9

Other

3.8

4.2

3.0

4.0

3.7

2.5

3.0

4.5

6.9

HARD TO SAY

7.9

10.4

4.7

10.6

9.9

7.2

7.4

6.4

8.9

NOTHING IN RUSSIA ATTRACTS

35.2

55.0

20.0

46.7

21.6

45.2

36.8

30.4

40.1

Refusal to answer

1.9

2.5

1.0

1.7

3.2

2.0

2.7

1.2

0.7

24. Do you agree with the following statement: “In Ukraine the rights of Russian-speaking population are violated”?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

23.1

12.4

39.9

12.8

29.5

9.9

20.0

24.8

11.4

No

71.5

79.7

57.2

82.2

60.8

87.6

72.1

71.8

86.1

HARD TO SAY

4.4

5.2

2.2

4.7

8.4

2.5

6.2

3.5

2.5

Refusal to answer

1.0

2.7

0.7

0.2

1.2

0.0

1.7

0.0

0.0

25. Do you agree with the statement that in your region the rights of Ukrainian speaking population are violated?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

3.8

3.5

5.4

3.0

3.5

2.2

3.5

4.0

1.7

No

92.2

87.9

93.1

94.3

90.6

95.3

91.6

93.3

96.5

HARD TO SAY

2.8

3.7

1.0

2.5

5.5

2.5

3.0

2.7

1.7

Refusal to answer

1.3

5.0

0.5

0.2

0.5

0.0

2.0

0.0

0.0

26. Which of the following statements concerning the Crimea you agree to a greater extent?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Joining the Crimea to Russia – is the result of illegal annexation

44.3

61.1

25.7

53.6

26.8

68.2

46.9

42.8

56.7

Joining the Crimea to Russia – is the result of the free will of people in the Crimea

43.0

25.5

62.9

31.1

58.1

23.3

38.3

44.1

36.9

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

11.5

10.6

10.9

13.8

14.4

7.2

12.8

12.4

6.2

Refusal to answer

1.3

2.7

0.5

1.5

0.7

1.2

2.0

0.7

0.2

27.1 Do you agree with the following statements … The position of the Ukrainian central government during the Crimean crisis was correct, as in the conflict there were not victims?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

19.0

14.4

20.3

14.3

23.6

20.1

19.3

18.1

27.0

Rather, I agree

22.1

20.8

19.8

19.5

22.3

25.1

24.2

24.3

25.5

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

28.7

26.7

32.9

34.8

19.4

29.0

26.7

29.0

31.4

Rather not agree

12.8

14.6

14.6

12.6

8.2

12.9

16.0

10.1

9.7

Strongly disagree

11.6

16.6

9.2

12.8

10.7

9.7

9.4

14.6

5.0

Refusal to answer

5.8

6.9

3.2

5.9

15.9

3.2

4.4

4.0

1.5

27.2 Do you agree with the following statements … Crimea was lost because of incompetence and indecision power?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

44.2

40.6

52.7

42.7

42.2

33.5

41.5

47.8

38.1

Rather, I agree

21.8

19.3

21.0

24.9

20.6

25.6

21.7

22.3

24.0

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

17.8

22.3

16.8

15.6

11.2

21.3

19.0

15.6

25.2

Rather not agree

5.8

4.7

3.2

8.4

4.7

6.7

8.6

6.2

9.7

Strongly disagree

5.1

6.4

4.5

3.7

6.0

8.7

4.7

5.0

2.0

Refusal to answer

5.2

6.7

1.7

4.7

15.4

4.2

4.4

3.2

1.0

27.3 Do you agree with the following statements … Letting Crimea go is collusion between the central government, Moscow and the West?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

6.9

7.4

5.7

6.7

3.7

4.0

8.6

6.4

17.3

Rather, I agree

7.1

8.4

5.7

5.4

5.2

6.9

5.7

8.9

14.4

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

31.1

31.4

33.9

30.6

23.6

36.2

33.8

26.7

34.7

Rather not agree

19.4

20.3

17.8

17.5

18.4

20.8

19.8

24.3

12.9

Strongly disagree

25.4

22.5

30.0

23.0

27.0

24.8

21.7

28.7

18.1

Refusal to answer

10.1

9.9

6.9

16.8

22.1

7.2

10.4

5.0

2.7

28. Who should be responsible for the loss of the Crimea?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Central authority (Acting President, Defense Minister, head of the SBU, the head of the National Security Council)

61.6

53.7

71.8

61.2

57.8

56.6

60.2

65.1

54.2

Separatist government and parliament of Crimea (Aksenov, Konstantinov)

23.8

23.8

11.6

25.4

22.3

41.9

31.6

20.5

42.8

Russia

19.0

24.3

8.4

22.5

15.4

27.8

21.7

17.1

34.4

U.S. and EU

6.8

6.9

6.9

7.7

6.2

5.5

5.2

8.2

6.4

Other

3.1

3.5

4.2

1.2

4.0

3.2

3.0

2.2

2.0

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

6.6

5.2

7.7

6.7

4.0

4.5

8.6

8.7

5.4

Refusal to answer

6.6

6.9

3.2

4.7

17.4

5.5

5.4

4.7

7.4

29. Polity Ukraine should be …?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Unitary – the area should have the rights that they have now

19.1

19.6

10.6

19.8

12.4

17.9

29.1

23.3

32.9

Unitary, but you need to decentralize power and extend the rights of regions

45.2

51.0

41.1

51.4

34.2

63.0

44.2

39.1

54.5

Federated

24.8

11.4

38.4

15.3

41.9

10.7

17.5

32.2

6.9

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

8.8

11.6

8.7

13.6

7.9

8.4

8.1

5.2

5.0

Refusal to answer

2.0

6.4

1.2

0.0

3.5

0.0

1.0

0.2

0.7

30. You support or oppose the view that the position of Governor should be elected?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support

68.1

67.6

76.2

65.2

63.0

66.7

62.2

68.3

66.8

Rather, support

18.3

19.6

13.9

14.3

22.6

25.6

25.7

15.3

13.4

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

8.0

5.9

5.7

11.1

8.4

5.5

7.4

9.9

15.8

Rather, do not support

2.7

2.0

3.2

5.4

4.0

0.5

1.2

3.2

0.5

Certainly do not support

1.2

1.5

0.5

2.2

1.0

1.2

1.0

1.2

2.0

Refusal to answer

1.7

3.5

0.5

1.7

1.0

0.5

2.5

2.0

1.5

 

31. Who, in your opinion, should determine the main provisions of the new Constitution of Ukraine concerning the government, powers of the center and the regions, languages, and so forth?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Ukraine itself

87.7

87.4

86.9

89.6

83.4

92.3

86.7

89.1

91.6

Ukraine with the participation of Russia

6.3

5.0

8.2

3.2

8.4

2.0

8.1

7.4

1.5

Ukraine with the participation of the EU and U.S.

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.5

2.5

1.5

0.7

1.7

Ukraine with the participation of Russia, the EU and the U.S.

0.8

1.5

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.2

0.2

HARD TO SAY

3.3

3.2

3.0

5.4

5.2

2.0

1.7

2.0

5.0

Refusal to answer

0.9

2.2

0.5

0.2

1.5

0.2

1.2

0.5

0.0

32. Imagine, please, that now passes a referendum on whether to join Ukraine to the European Union or the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. You can vote for accession to the European Union or for entry into the Customs Union. What is your choice?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Would vote for accession to the European Union

24.7

38.1

9.4

31.1

11.2

40.4

25.4

26.5

37.4

Would vote for accession to the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan

46.8

29.2

72.5

36.3

64.3

22.1

36.5

46.5

31.4

Would not participate in the referendum

14.8

17.1

8.4

16.8

10.4

19.9

19.5

16.8

17.6

HARD TO SAY

12.3

14.4

8.9

15.1

11.4

16.6

15.3

9.4

11.9

Refusal to answer

1.4

1.2

0.7

0.7

2.7

1.0

3.2

0.7

1.7

33. If next Sunday were held presidential elections in Ukraine, would you participate in the vote? And what would be your choice if in the elections was attended by such candidates?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Olga Bohomolets

2.3

2.7

2.0

3.2

1.5

2.5

3.5

1.2

2.7

Yuriy Boiko

0.5

0.2

1.0

0.2

1.2

0.2

0.5

0.0

0.0

Andriy Hrynenko

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.2

Anatoly Hrytsenko

3.4

4.2

2.5

1.2

2.0

5.0

3.5

4.5

6.2

Mikhail Dobkin

7.3

5.9

8.2

4.7

9.9

3.2

3.7

13.9

2.0

Alexander Klimenko

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Valery Konovalyuk

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Royal Natalia

0.4

0.7

0.5

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.7

0.0

0.0

Renat Kuzmin

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

Vasily Kuibida

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Oleh Lyashko

1.1

2.0

0.2

0.7

0.5

2.2

1.0

1.0

2.5

Malomuzh Nikolai

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Petro Poroshenko

18.6

24.8

10.4

22.5

7.7

26.8

22.7

19.6

27.0

Vadim Rabinovich

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.2

Vladimir Saranov

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

Petro Simonenko

3.3

2.0

4.7

3.0

5.2

5.2

2.7

2.2

1.0

Yulia Tymoshenko

3.7

5.9

2.0

3.0

1.7

5.7

4.2

4.0

5.4

Sergei Tigipko

9.1

9.2

12.4

10.6

9.2

6.0

10.4

4.5

6.7

Oleh Tyahnibok

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

1.2

0.2

0.5

Oleh Tsarev

1.3

0.7

2.0

0.7

1.5

0.5

1.2

1.7

1.0

Vasily Tsushko

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.0

0.0

Shkiryak Zorian

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dmitry Jaros

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.7

0.5

0.5

WILL NOT VOTE

11.5

7.4

15.8

8.6

14.6

10.2

7.9

13.6

8.9

Hard to say, is not defined

33.6

30.4

35.6

38.0

40.7

28.5

31.9

29.5

33.4

Refusal to answer

2.5

2.5

1.7

2.2

3.2

1.5

3.2

3.5

1.7

Pro-Russian Separatists Loot, Assault Romani in Sloviansk

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Pro-Russian separatists have engaged in seemingly racially motivated acts of looting and assault against Romani residents of Sloviansk, reports the News of Donbass. Armed separatists have reportedly begun a series of home invasions against the city’s Romani population, robbing and assaulting their victims. The militants apparently have shown no regard for age or gender, and women and children have been among the victims who were beaten According to eyewitnesses, the gunmen carried off stolen property in trucks.

The perpetrators claim that they are acting on the orders of the self-described ‘People’s Mayor’ and leader of the separatist militant wing, Vyacheslav Ponomarev.

The attacks on Romani, also known as Gypsies, follows a troubling precedent set the day prior when members of the Donetsk Republic organization distributed anti-Semitic leaflets in an attempt to extort and intimidate members of the Jewish community. Ponomarev has also announced a “hunt” on the Ukrainian speaking population of Sloviansk, wherein those who speak the indigenous language be treated as suspicious and reported to the local militia.

Pro-Russian Separatists Loot, Assault Romani in Sloviansk

Donbass Militia leader Vyacheslav Ponomarev
Vyacheslav Ponomarev

Pro-Russian separatists have engaged in seemingly racially motivated acts of looting and assault against Romani residents of Sloviansk, reports the News of Donbass. Reports of the attacks were confirmed by Prime Minister Yatsenyuk. Armed separatists have reportedly begun a series of home invasions against the city’s Romani population, robbing and assaulting their victims. The militants apparently have shown no regard for age or gender, and women and children have been among the victims who were beaten According to eyewitnesses, the gunmen carried off stolen property in trucks.

The perpetrators claim that they are acting on the orders of the self-described ‘People’s Mayor’ and leader of the separatist militant wing, Vyacheslav Ponomarev. According to Ponomarev, he held talks with a Romani who he alleged were involved in drug trafficking, and “removed them from the city.” Ponomarev said they were not attacks on Romani, but rather ‘cleaning the city from drugs.’

The attacks on Romani, also known as Gypsies, follow a troubling precedent set the day prior when members of the Donetsk Republic organization distributed anti-Semitic leaflets in an attempt to extort and intimidate members of the Jewish community. Ponomarev has also announced a “hunt” on the Ukrainian speaking population of Sloviansk, wherein those who speak the indigenous language be treated as suspicious and reported to the local militia.

The Prime Minister has instructed law enforcement agencies to identify those distributing hateful material and bring them to justice, as well as those involved in the attacks on Romani.

Counter-Terror Operation in Donetsk

Following a late night session of the National Security Council which discussed anti-terrorism measures and the possibility of introducing a state of emergency, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov announced a counter-terrorist operation would begin in Sloviansk under the leadership of the Security Service (SBU). The operation is said to include units from all service branches in Ukraine.

What happened in Sloviansk?

Initially, Avakov stated that separatists had opened fire on special forces in the city. He then posted a notice to residents of the city to leave the city centre, stay at home, and avoid windows for their own safety. Eyewitnesses noted that the Russian tricolor had been also taken down from atop the city administration. Helicopters have been seen flying over the city, and separatists were said to primarily be guarding barricades erected outside the buildings they had occupied, and along the highway.

Riot police began by clearing a separatist checkpoint leading in to the city. The operation led to the death of two Ukrainian Security Service officers and nine wounded, said the Interior Minister. Acting president Tuchynov’s address to the nation identified an SBU officer as Alpha Group captain Hennadiy Bilichenko. The wounded included Ukrainian military who arrived in three armored personal carriers, according to eyewitnesses and officials. Casualties on the separatists’ side, however, were ‘unidentifiable’ but were said to include deaths, and that the support base of the rebels included 1,000 pro-Russian activists. Russian and Ukrainian news confirmed at least one separatist death in the operation, and Ukrainian military officials confirmed that the remaining gunmen had escaped into the forest.

According to multiple eyewitness reports covered by the Kyiv Post, the separatists instigated the shootout where upon Ukrainian officials approaching a suspect vehicle, four men in camouflage emerged and opened fire on Ukrainian soldiers. The car had a Poltava Oblast license plate, which was traced to the private security firm Yavir.

In the city, two were shot dead by an assailant in plain clothes, including a journalist, and another seriously wounded. Sky News correspondent Katie Stallard, who is in Sloviansk, said that civilians, including the elderly, were being used as human shields to protect pro-Russian forces Ukrainian security advances. Near the city, however, insurgents captured a truck carrying a shipment of rockets to the border.

Ukrainian MP Lesya Orobets has since stated that at least 10 separatists have been killed in clashes, citing 3 sources.

April 15 clashes

Ukrainian armored division near Sloviansk
Ukrainian armored division near Sloviansk

Following a direct message from acting defense minister Mykhailo Koval that Ukrainian troops are on full alert to carry out tasks , at 4am Kyiv time Interfax has reported that clashes have broken out on the outskirts of Sloviansk between separatists and what were described as men in black uniforms. Armored personnel carriers have been spotted in the area, and gunshots and explosions heard according to a representative of a self-defense group who spoke to the news service. The source also informs that the village council in Andreevka (outside of Sloviansk) was on fire, and shots were fired. A correspondent for TSN informs that shots were not heard, but there are burning tires. UAInfo has also reported that 10 Russian militants have been shot at a checkpoint in the region, though this is unconfirmed by other sources or if related to Orobets’ previous figure.

UNIANITAR-TASSand Kommersant have since reported that tanks and heavy military equipment have been seen en route to Sloviansk, with Kommersant providing photos. The information from ITAR-TASS comes from Russian separatist commander Ponomarev. In Kramatorsk,  RIA Novosti  citing witnesses has reported that armored divisions have also been seen.

Elsewhere in Donetsk region

Separatist activity has been documented in Donetsk (Regional admin. & MVS), Kramatorsk (seized city admin. & police & airport), Druzhkivka, Yenakiyevo (seized city admin.), Mariupol, Makiyivka (seized city admin.), Mariupol, Kostriantynivka, Ilovaysk, Horlivka (attempt to capture police), Dobropillya (attempt to capture police station), and Artemivsk.

The most notable action for the day happened in Mariupol, where the mayor’s office in the southern-Donetsk city was reportedly captured masked separatists this Sunday following a rally which attracted 1,000. Upon storming the building they removed the Ukrainian flag and hoisted both the flags of Russia and the Donetsk Republic. A huge barricade has since been constructed outside the building below a republican banner, while inactive police look on.

Counter-terrorism Operation in Sloviansk

Following a late night session of the National Security Council which discussed anti-terrorism measures and the possibility of introducing a state of emergency, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov announced a counter-terrorist operation would begin in Sloviansk under the leadership of the Security Service (SBU). The operation is said to include units from all service branches in Ukraine.

Shortly thereafter, Avakov stated that separatists had opened fire on special forces in the city. He then posted a notice to citizens in the city to leave the city center, stay at home, and avoid windows for their own safety.

Riot police were then reported to have cleared a separatist roadblock leading in to the city. Eyewitnesses stated that the Russian tricolor had been also taken down from atop the city administration. Helicopters have been seen flying over the city.

The news follows yesterday’s explosion of armed separatist uprising in the northern Donetk region city of Sloviansk, where masked men in army fatigues and bulletproof vests, armed with assault rifles captured the executive committee building, the police department and SBU office in the city, along with a sizable weapons cache.

The counter-terrorist operation would be the first sign of retaking the Donetsk region, which has thus far been apprehensive to fight back. The last notable operation of its kind took place on April 8 when Jaguar units from Vinnytsia were used in the arrest of 70 separatists in Kharkiv attempting to take over the Regional State Administration building.

Motyl: Could Russia Occupy Ukraine?

Citing a 2008 study by US Army Major Glenn E. Kozelka and a 1995 RAND Corporation study by James Quinlivan, Motyl comes to the following conclusions when assessing troop requirements to occupy Ukraine in a military invasion scenario:

  • • In order to occupy Donetsk and Luhansk provinces alone, Russian would have to deploy somewhere between 26,702 and 133,514 troops.
  • • A “land bridge” from Crimea to Transnistria would mean occupying Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odessa provinces—which would entail somewhere between 46,497 and 92,994 soldiers.
  • • Occupying all seven southeastern provinces would require between 118,536 (26,702 for Donetsk and Luhansk and 91,834 for the others) and 317,182 (133,514 for Donetsk and Luhansk and 183,668 for the others).
  • • If Russia decides to conquer all of Ukraine, it would need an additional 548,587 troops—for a grand total of 667,123 to 865,769 troops.
  • • Kyiv city and Kyiv Province alone would require 90,676 occupying soldiers.

In light of Russia’s estimated current force levels on Ukraine’s borders (50,000–80,000), the best Russia could do under low- and medium-violence assumptions would be to invade a few southeastern provinces. If those assumptions are changed to medium or high, only one or two provinces would be within its grasp. These conclusions assume that an invasion would entail no force deterioration as a result of the Ukrainian army’s resistance. Change that assumption, and Russia’s capacity to occupy southeastern Ukraine declines even more.

Dr. Alexander Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia, and the USSR

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