Southeast Statistics

A Report on KIIS Polling Data From April 8-16, 2014

An opinion poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) was recently conducted on the views and opinions of residents of South-Eastern Ukraine. The poll was conducted April 8-16 through 3232 respondents in eight regions of Ukraine (Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, and Donetsk).

The Donbas Conflict

18.1% of Donetsk and 24.2% of Luhansk support the recent armed seizures of administrative buildings in the Donbas region, while surrounding provinces overwhelmingly disapprove of the current situation. 72% of Donetsk and 58.3% of Luhansk residents disapprove of the current actions. Roughly 25% in the Donbas region said they would attend secessionist rallies in favor of joining Russia.

Supporters in Donetsk were mostly split in their justification of the armed occupations, but Luhansk leaned towards seeing the militant actions as no different from what occurred in Kyiv and the west. Donetsk and Luhansk also held the lowest belief that Russia has organized the separatist occupations, and were the only two regions where the majority did not believe Russia was illegally interfering in the internal affairs of Ukraine.

Crisis Solutions

Most in the Southeast believe that the disarmament and disbanding of illegal radical groups is crucial to preserving national unity. Secondary solutions are economic, both internal (including supporting local business) and with regard to Russia (and establishing dialogue). Luhansk is the only region which favors local economy over the disbanding of radicals.

Independence & Secessionism

89.1% of the Southeast believes Ukraine should be an independent state, but with most feeling Russia and Ukraine should share open borders without visa restrictions. In contrast, 8.4% are in favor of Ukraine and Russia uniting into a single state; this sentiment is strongest in Donetsk (12.4%) and Luhansk (15.9%). Kherson showed the least support for joining Russia, with less than one percent favoring such an arrangement.

These figures are considerably lower than those conducted by KIIS in February, where 33% of Donetsk and 24% of Luhansk favored a Russo-Ukrainian state union.

However, when asked if one would favor their local region seceding from Ukraine and joining Russia, unification sentiment nearly doubles to 15.4%. No single region supported secessionism by a majority, but the Donbas again led the pack with 27.5% (of Donetsk) and 30.3% (of Luhansk) favoring a Crimean scenario.

Federalization

Only 11.8% of the Southeast supports federalization as a solution to preserving national cohesion. In Donetsk, 19.1% and Luhansk, 21.6% support the devolutionary solution. Other regions show considerably lower, mostly single-digit support.

When asked what system they prefer without qualification, on the whole, 64.3% of the Southeast believes Ukraine should remain a unitary state, while 24.8% favor federalization. Donetsk and Luhansk specifically favor a unitary structure (51.7% and 55.6%, respectively) over federalization (38.4% and 41.9%). Federalization was least supported in Kherson (6.9%),  Mykolaiv (10.7%), and Dnipropetrovsk (11.4%); unitarianism was also most strongly desired in the southern provinces of Mykolaiv (81%) and Kherson (87.4%). All provinces overwhelmingly support the devolutionary measure to allow governors to be locally elected, as opposed to appointed by the central government.

Russian Language

11% of the Russian-speaking portion of the country view introducing Russian as the second official language will help the current situation. Donetsk and Luhansk led support with a mere 17.1% each. Only 23.1% feel that the rights of Russian speakers are violated (versus 71.5%), most sentiment of which is concentrated in Donetsk (39.9%). When asked what they found attractive about Russia, while most of the Southeast said nothing does, notably the least compelling reason was the cultural connection. Altogether, alleged cultural-linguistic motivating factors in the region by media sources appear to be overblown.

Civil War?

46% feel that a civil war is possible (responding ‘rather’ or ‘definitely’ yes), while 32.7% feel war won’t occur. Donetsk and Luhansk (the Donbas) were the only regions where the majority felt civil war was possible. Dnipropetrovsk was the most convicted (‘definitely’) that civil war would take place (20.3%), but no region was equally as convinced it would not (Odessa being the greatest with 16.5% feeling civil war ‘certainly’ would not occur). When asked the most likely thing to cause anxiety, more were concerned with crime and the economy than all else.

Despite growing fear in crime and violence, and distrust in government institutions, 83% are against the right to bear arms with uniform figures across all regions. Dnipropetrovsk held the highest favor of the initiative with 10.7%. Only 4.4% said they would take up arms in the event of a civil war.

A Russian Invasion

With regards to Russian intervention in Ukraine, 19.3% of Donetsk and Luhansk support a Russian incursion, nearly twice the Southeastern average. Aside from the aforementioned two and Kharkiv (70%), 4/5ths of respondents in all other regions outright opposed Russian intervention. Kherson, which borders Crimea, held the greatest fear that Russia would invade (45.3%).

When asked what would prompt residents to take up arms, only 5.3% in the Southeast said a Russian invasion would push them to arm themselves, but twice as many would fight in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. However, over half in the Southeast would fight if there was a threat to their safety or to that of their family. When asked specifically what they would do in the event of a Russian invasion, 20.9% said they would fight while 7% said they would welcome Russian forces. Most said they would stay at home and not involve themselves in military matters. Of course, this data includes all respondents and not only men of fighting age.

Distrust in Government

In the entire Southeast, 45% view the central government under Turchynov to be in varying degrees a legitimate entity, while over 50% do not. The figure of general certainty that the government is illegitimate is most concentrated in Donetsk (74%) and Luhansk (70%) while the highest levels of support came from Odessa (38.5%), Dnipropetrovsk (39.4%), and Mykolaiv (55.1%). 36.8% of the Southeast also considers Parliament itself to be an illegal organ of the state, but more respondents found it to be legal (42.3%). Despite this, majority of all regions, however, found deposed president Viktor Yanukovych to not be the legal president of the country.

Revolution or Coup?

46% of those in the Southeast consider the Ukrainian Revolution to have been a coup organized by the West, while 41.7% view the events as a revolution against a tyrannical dictator. Donetsk and Luhansk are the only regions where a majority hold the view that a coup occurred, while Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Kherson held the opposite, pro-revolutionary view via majority.

Presidential elections

In all regions but the Donbas, pro-Euromaidan oligarch Petro Poroshenko dominates preliminary election polls. In Donetsk Poroshenko (10.4%) ranks second to Tihipko (12.4%), and in Luhansk he ranks third with 7.7% as Tihipko and Dobkin split the pro-Russian vote with roughly 9% each. A third of respondents in the Southeast so far have not yet made up their minds, and 11.5% say they will boycott the elections.

 

1.1 Do you consider legal or illegal the following organs of the central government in Ukraine?
Acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Sure (a) that the authority is legitimate

16.6

23.3

6.4

18.3

7.9

33.0

20.7

18.1

19.6

Most believe that the authority is legitimate

13.7

16.1

7.9

14.3

6.9

22.1

17.8

12.6

26.5

It is difficult to say for sure, I believe that authority is partly legal, partly illegal

15.1

16.8

9.9

19.5

12.2

18.1

19.0

13.6

21.3

Most believe that the authority is not legitimate

18.7

17.3

21.0

14.1

20.1

8.7

21.0

20.8

18.8

Sure (a) that the authority is not legitimate

32.1

19.3

53.0

29.1

49.9

15.1

17.3

30.4

13.1

Do not know / refuse

3.8

7.2

1.7

4.7

3.0

3.0

4.2

4.5

0.7

1.2 Do you consider legal or illegal the following organs of the central government in Ukraine?
The Government headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Sure (a) that the authority is legitimate

17.0

24.8

5.7

18.5

8.4

34.7

21.5

18.8

19.3

Most believe that the authority is legitimate

16.6

22.8

10.9

16.5

8.4

22.3

19.3

14.6

30.2

It is difficult to say for sure, I believe that authority is partly legal, partly illegal

13.3

13.1

9.4

20.7

9.7

14.9

16.0

11.6

20.3

Most believe that the authority is not legitimate

17.6

15.1

18.6

13.1

21.8

9.7

21.0

19.3

18.3

Sure (a) that the authority is not legitimate

32.0

19.6

53.5

26.2

48.6

14.6

18.5

31.4

11.1

Do not know / refuse

3.4

4.7

2.0

4.9

3.0

3.7

3.7

4.2

0.7

 

1.3 Do you consider legal or illegal the following organs of the central government in Ukraine?
Verkhovna Rada

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Sure (a) that the authority is legitimate

20.7

25.2

10.9

20.2

16.9

37.2

23.7

21.8

25.7

Most believe that the authority is legitimate

21.6

26.0

21.0

20.5

18.4

24.1

22.0

17.1

27.2

It is difficult to say for sure, I believe that authority is partly legal, partly illegal

17.2

13.9

16.6

23.2

13.9

15.1

21.0

15.1

25.5

Most believe that the authority is not legitimate

13.5

12.6

14.4

10.1

13.2

7.7

16.0

15.8

13.9

Sure (a) that the authority is not legitimate

23.3

16.8

35.1

21.5

33.5

12.7

13.3

25.0

6.7

Do not know / refuse

3.8

5.4

2.0

4.4

4.2

3.2

4.0

5.2

1.0

2. Do you think Viktor Yanukovych is the legal president of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely yes

10.0

6.9

18.8

8.1

12.2

6.9

5.9

6.9

3.2

Rather yes

9.6

7.9

13.6

7.7

15.4

3.7

9.6

5.9

5.9

It is difficult to say for sure, partly yes, partly no

8.5

5.0

7.9

9.6

12.9

4.5

11.6

8.9

6.9

Rather no

18.1

13.4

23.8

17.5

17.6

16.9

18.0

17.6

15.1

Certainly not

51.7

64.6

34.4

55.6

40.0

64.0

50.4

58.7

68.1

Do not know / refuse

2.2

2.2

1.5

1.5

2.0

4.0

4.4

2.0

0.7

3. You think that the events on the Maidan in Kiev last winter – it’s …

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

… Citizens protesting against the corruption and tyranny of dictatorship Yanukovych

41.7

54.5

20.0

43.7

26.8

60.3

50.1

47.5

61.9

… an armed coup organized opposition through the West

46.0

31.2

70.5

38.3

61.3

23.6

37.0

42.6

30.0

Or … something else?

1.8

1.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

3.5

2.7

2.0

2.5

DO NOT KNOW / HARD TO SAY

9.7

11.1

8.2

15.6

9.9

11.9

9.4

7.7

4.7

Refusal to answer

0.7

1.7

0.2

1.0

0.0

0.7

0.7

0.2

1.0

4. Do you feel personally guilty for the actions of Yanukovych?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely yes

3.9

7.2

2.5

2.7

3.0

5.7

2.5

4.0

4.5

Rather yes

7.4

10.6

4.7

7.4

8.2

7.4

6.4

7.9

7.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly feel partially not feel

9.1

10.9

6.4

9.6

10.9

10.2

6.4

7.9

15.8

Rather no

20.3

21.5

21.5

22.5

22.3

20.1

21.7

15.1

14.6

Certainly not

58.0

47.3

64.1

56.5

54.1

54.8

62.0

64.6

57.2

Refusal to answer

1.2

2.5

0.7

1.2

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.5

0.7

5. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Viktor Yanukovych had to disperse Maidan with force”?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely agree

19.3

13.1

31.7

11.9

25.1

10.2

10.6

21.0

14.9

Rather, I agree

12.8

8.4

16.3

10.9

20.8

5.0

9.4

14.4

10.1

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

15.5

11.6

15.1

13.3

19.1

13.6

17.3

15.6

23.3

Rather not agree

17.7

22.5

15.6

23.2

12.4

17.9

20.0

15.3

13.1

Certainly disagree

33.2

42.6

19.6

37.8

22.1

52.1

40.2

32.9

37.6

Refusal to answer

1.6

1.7

1.7

3.0

0.5

1.2

2.5

0.7

1.0

6. Who, in your opinion, is responsible for the casualties on the Maidan?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Viktor Yanukovych

45.1

54.0

28.7

44.2

29.5

64.5

50.9

51.7

65.6

Party of Regions

17.2

14.1

9.9

13.8

13.6

25.6

26.9

19.1

34.4

Law enforcement agencies, “Berkut”

8.2

7.9

3.0

8.1

7.2

10.2

16.5

7.7

12.6

Protesters

10.3

7.7

10.1

8.4

13.2

10.2

12.3

10.9

11.4

Opposition leaders

37.5

24.5

57.2

27.9

47.6

27.0

33.8

33.9

24.8

Occident

18.4

11.1

28.5

12.1

22.6

8.7

14.1

22.8

11.6

Russia

4.8

4.0

1.2

6.9

4.7

5.7

5.4

5.9

13.4

Other

2.1

1.7

2.5

2.7

2.0

1.7

2.7

1.5

1.0

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

11.2

11.4

8.2

17.8

14.1

9.2

11.9

10.4

8.4

Refusal to answer

1.3

1.7

0.7

1.0

2.2

0.5

2.2

0.2

1.7

7.1.1 Do you think the state & Berkut justified the use of weapons on Maidan?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

21.5

9.9

35.1

9.4

28.3

9.2

16.5

27.2

21.0

No

68.5

79.2

53.7

81.5

54.3

86.4

75.6

66.3

71.3

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

9.0

8.7

10.6

8.4

16.4

4.0

6.2

6.4

6.9

Refusal to answer

1.0

2.2

0.5

0.7

1.0

0.5

1.7

0.0

0.7

7.1.2 Do you think protesters on Maidan were justified in using weapons?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

7.5

7.7

3.0

10.6

3.5

8.9

7.9

11.6

14.6

No

84.2

82.2

88.1

80.5

86.8

85.9

83.0

83.4

79.7

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

7.4

8.2

8.4

8.1

8.9

4.5

7.4

5.0

5.2

Refusal to answer

0.9

2.0

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.7

0.0

0.5

7.2 On this card are listed opinions regarding responsibility of law enforcement and “Berkut” for the victims on the Maidan. Which of these opinions is closest to you?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporozh-Skye

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Law enforcement agencies and “Berkut” were following orders, and took an oath, so the responsibility for the victims on the Maidan are those who gave them orders

64.7

59.9

73.0

55.3

66.3

55.1

58.0

71.5

66.3

Law enforcement agencies and “Berkut” knowingly performed criminal orders and carry the same responsibility for the victims on the Maidan, as well as those who gave them orders

21.0

23.5

12.4

26.9

15.1

30.5

29.6

19.1

25.7

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

11.0

10.1

11.1

16.5

14.9

12.9

8.6

8.7

4.5

Refusal to answer

3.3

6.4

3.5

1.2

3.7

1.5

3.7

0.7

3.5

8.1 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the “Right Sector”?

“Right sector” is … One of dozens of marginalized groups, and has no real weight and influence in the government, but needs to be disarmed?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

30.6

24.5

36.4

26.7

40.7

27.0

29.1

28.0

27.0

Rather, I agree

22.1

24.3

19.8

18.0

22.1

26.3

21.7

22.3

26.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

24.0

25.5

24.0

24.4

14.6

25.6

26.9

22.3

34.2

Rather not agree

7.8

7.7

8.7

5.9

3.7

6.2

8.1

12.4

5.7

Strongly disagree

5.0

5.7

5.2

5.2

2.7

3.5

5.9

5.4

4.2

Do not know / refused to answer

10.6

12.4

5.9

19.8

16.1

11.4

8.1

9.7

2.7

8.2 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the “right sector”?

“Right Sector” … is a major military formation, with influence in the government and a threat to the citizens and the integrity of the country?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

32.6

22.8

50.2

24.7

41.9

19.4

26.9

26.2

30.9

Rather, I agree

20.3

21.5

22.8

14.3

21.1

15.6

17.0

21.5

25.0

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

20.1

20.5

13.4

24.4

13.4

25.3

24.0

23.0

30.9

Rather not agree

10.1

11.4

5.4

9.6

5.5

15.6

16.3

13.4

7.9

Strongly disagree

7.1

12.4

3.2

8.4

4.5

11.7

8.4

7.2

2.0

Do not know / refused to answer

9.6

11.4

5.0

18.5

13.6

12.4

7.4

8.7

3.2

 

8.3 To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following

statements regarding the “Right Sector”?

“Right Sector” is … Political party nationalist persuasion?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

24.8

18.1

30.9

21.2

29.5

27.5

21.0

22.3

29.2

Rather, I agree

22.3

19.8

17.1

16.8

22.6

29.5

25.4

29.5

27.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

25.1

31.7

25.5

27.4

13.9

20.6

26.9

21.5

32.2

Rather not agree

9.5

8.4

11.6

10.4

8.7

6.5

11.9

8.9

4.0

Strongly disagree

7.9

9.7

8.4

7.2

6.7

6.0

6.2

9.9

4.2

Do not know / refused to answer

10.5

12.4

6.4

17.0

18.6

9.9

8.6

7.9

3.2

8.4 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the “Right Sector”?

“Right Sector” is a myth …?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

2.4

4.0

1.0

2.7

2.5

1.5

3.0

2.2

2.5

Rather, I agree

3.1

4.2

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.0

4.7

1.7

6.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

22.3

22.5

24.5

21.7

14.9

30.5

24.9

14.1

36.4

Rather not agree

20.4

18.3

21.8

15.3

17.4

20.1

23.0

26.7

15.6

Strongly disagree

39.4

39.6

42.1

39.3

38.5

33.5

31.6

46.8

34.9

Do not know / refused to answer

12.3

11.4

8.2

18.5

24.3

12.4

12.8

8.4

4.5

  

8.5 How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements regarding the “Right Sector”?

“Right Sector” are … provocateurs acting in the interests of Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

4.8

8.7

3.7

5.9

3.0

4.7

4.4

3.0

5.2

Rather, I agree

5.6

8.2

3.5

6.2

4.5

6.0

6.9

3.0

11.4

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

23.1

25.5

20.3

26.4

12.7

26.1

25.7

22.0

36.4

Rather not agree

19.2

17.6

23.5

13.1

15.9

19.1

21.0

21.5

15.3

Strongly disagree

35.6

28.2

42.1

27.9

44.4

30.3

32.1

40.8

27.7

Do not know / refused to answer

11.6

11.9

6.9

20.5

19.6

13.9

9.9

9.7

4.0

9. Do you think a civil war is possible in Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely yes

16.4

20.3

19.3

16.3

13.9

17.4

12.6

11.6

17.8

Rather yes

29.6

24.3

36.6

24.9

38.0

27.8

25.7

26.2

28.0

It is difficult to say for sure, partly yes, partly no

19.8

15.3

15.3

20.5

23.3

23.8

22.2

22.3

26.5

Rather no

20.2

25.2

17.3

20.2

14.4

21.1

20.2

25.2

14.4

Certainly not

12.5

13.6

9.2

16.3

9.7

9.4

16.5

13.9

12.9

Refusal to answer

1.5

1.2

2.2

1.7

0.7

0.5

2.7

0.7

0.5

 10. Some people believe that you need to allow Ukrainian citizens to freely acquire weapons. Others oppose this initiative. What is your opinion?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support the initiative

4.1

6.7

3.5

2.5

2.7

3.5

3.2

5.4

3.5

Rather, support the initiative

4.0

4.0

4.2

2.2

7.4

4.5

3.5

3.0

3.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

7.7

6.4

6.4

8.1

7.7

9.9

6.7

10.4

8.2

Rather, do not support the initiative

14.0

11.1

10.6

14.1

20.6

12.4

17.5

16.1

11.6

Certainly do not support the initiative

69.1

69.8

74.5

72.6

60.5

69.5

67.7

64.6

71.8

Refusal to answer

1.0

2.0

0.7

0.5

1.0

0.2

1.5

0.5

1.7

11. What today is more likely cause you anxiety?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Rampant banditry in the country

43.1

43.3

51.5

37.5

29.8

48.1

46.2

40.1

42.6

Inattention to the problems of the central government of the Southeast

16.8

8.7

19.8

15.6

22.8

23.6

15.8

13.6

22.3

The growth of radicalism and nationalism

19.1

10.6

22.5

13.1

26.6

20.8

19.3

19.1

24.5

One-sided coverage in the Ukrainian media issues in the region and the country

8.2

5.7

11.9

7.9

7.2

6.0

6.2

10.6

5.7

Introduction of visas with Russia

7.3

4.0

9.4

3.0

7.2

3.2

5.9

11.1

14.1

Joining NATO

9.6

2.5

15.3

5.2

10.7

5.0

12.8

10.1

12.1

Disabling Russian TV channels

5.0

2.0

6.4

2.5

3.7

4.0

4.9

10.6

3.5

The risk of losing their jobs

18.6

9.9

24.5

16.8

20.3

23.1

24.0

15.8

12.4

Non-payment of salaries and pensions

24.6

13.6

32.4

26.7

28.0

30.3

31.9

18.6

11.9

The collapse of the Ukrainian economy

39.2

27.5

44.3

32.8

42.7

48.4

40.0

36.9

53.2

Disruption of economic ties with Russia

19.7

8.2

26.7

10.1

36.2

13.9

11.1

24.0

23.5

Growth of separatist sentiment

13.7

10.9

12.6

9.6

12.7

21.3

14.1

14.9

23.5

Imposition of one language

6.5

2.0

9.4

2.5

12.7

4.5

4.0

7.7

7.9

Threat of civil war

31.7

26.7

40.6

27.7

28.5

29.3

31.4

24.5

47.8

Threat of invasion by the Russian aggressor

16.9

17.1

6.4

15.6

10.7

36.2

20.2

16.3

45.3

Other

1.8

3.2

1.0

2.7

0.7

0.5

2.0

2.2

1.7

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

1.8

2.0

0.7

3.5

1.5

2.0

1.5

2.7

1.0

Refusal to answer

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.0

12. What concrete steps do you expect from the central government to preserve the unity of the country?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Disarmament and disbandment of illegal radical groups

37.8

34.4

46.5

28.4

33.5

48.4

35.3

31.9

48.0

Marking a clear outlook for the economy of the Southeast (support enterprises in the region)

22.4

11.4

24.8

21.7

36.0

23.1

22.7

20.8

23.3

Establishment of a parliamentary coalition with the Party of Regions

3.9

3.2

4.2

4.0

4.0

3.5

6.2

3.2

2.0

The involvement of representatives of ministerial positions Southeast

10.8

3.0

16.1

6.9

15.9

8.7

10.6

12.6

9.4

Balanced cultural policy according to national circumstances and mentality of the inhabitants of the Southeast

15.2

11.1

15.6

11.9

24.1

20.1

14.3

12.6

16.6

Dissociation of power from the nationalist and radical rhetoric

16.3

11.6

21.5

10.1

22.1

21.8

10.1

15.8

17.8

Recovery (economic and political) dialogue with Russia

23.0

13.9

29.7

19.8

28.5

18.1

20.7

24.8

25.5

Federalization of Ukraine

11.8

5.9

19.1

5.7

21.6

5.5

6.7

13.4

4.7

Introducing a second state language

11.0

4.0

17.1

8.1

17.1

4.0

7.4

12.9

11.6

Early elections to the Verkhovna Rada

14.5

10.1

7.9

9.9

14.4

31.8

24.0

14.9

22.8

Early elections of President of Ukraine

17.6

15.6

10.9

15.6

13.2

27.0

26.7

19.8

28.5

Establishment of a permanent public dialogue between the southeast and central government

19.5

15.3

18.6

13.8

20.1

24.8

25.2

20.5

23.5

Distinguishing central government positions and interests of ordinary people in the region from his party and the oligarchic elite

13.4

8.7

13.4

9.6

16.4

27.0

11.6

10.4

25.2

Other

3.1

2.2

1.7

4.0

1.5

4.2

3.7

6.4

2.7

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

10.2

11.6

7.4

19.3

8.7

8.7

8.6

8.7

12.6

Refusal to answer

1.5

4.0

1.0

1.2

1.7

0.5

1.2

0.5

0.7

13.1 Do you support or do not support the actions of those who captured administrative buildings in your area with firearms?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support

5.7

5.4

9.4

1.0

12.2

3.0

2.0

3.7

1.7

Rather, support the initiative

6.0

3.7

8.7

3.5

12.2

4.0

3.5

6.2

1.0

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

10.4

6.4

8.4

9.1

15.6

9.7

7.9

16.8

11.6

Rather, do not support

16.7

15.6

18.8

17.0

19.1

15.6

18.0

14.4

9.9

Certainly do not support

60.1

68.1

53.2

68.9

39.2

66.3

67.7

58.4

72.0

Refusal to answer

1.2

0.7

1.5

0.5

1.7

1.5

1.0

0.5

3.7

13.2 How do you justify the armed capture of administrative buildings?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Capture buildings can be justified because no other way to draw attention to the center of the region’s problems do not

17.1

10.9

23.0

12.3

24.3

18.6

13.6

17.1

12.9

Can be justified, because at the time of the revolution in Kiev and Western regions of Ukraine have done the same

17.3

11.9

22.3

13.1

30.8

10.7

8.6

22.3

6.2

Under no circumstances does not justify armed seizure of administrative buildings, all problems must be solved only through diplomatic channels

61.4

69.3

52.5

67.9

41.7

69.7

73.1

57.7

77.2

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

5.0

7.2

4.0

8.9

6.0

3.5

3.2

3.5

3.7

Refusal to answer

1.0

1.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

1.7

1.7

 14. In your opinion, in addition to former President Yanukovych, should ministers, governors, prosecutors, and judges, who during his reign involved in corrupt practices and violations of the laws, be prosecuted?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly, we have

67.6

65.6

70.5

60.2

65.5

69.2

71.6

66.8

70.3

Rather, it should be

18.6

19.1

18.6

17.3

20.3

19.4

14.8

20.5

18.3

It is difficult to say for sure, should or should not

8.0

7.2

5.4

14.6

9.2

6.5

6.4

9.2

8.9

Rather, it should not

2.0

3.0

2.2

1.7

2.0

2.0

1.7

1.5

0.7

Clearly, should not

1.7

1.5

2.0

0.2

1.2

2.2

2.5

1.7

1.7

Refusal to answer

2.2

3.7

1.2

5.9

1.7

0.7

3.0

0.2

0.0

15.1 Some people believe that in order to overcome the problems there is a need to cooperate and bring to power big business. Others oppose such an initiative. What do you think?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support the involvement of representatives of large capital in positions of power

14.4

22.8

11.1

13.8

7.9

10.4

17.0

12.4

19.8

Rather, support

17.0

17.8

12.4

18.5

19.6

13.4

23.2

18.3

12.6

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

25.0

21.3

23.0

29.6

26.8

24.1

28.4

25.5

25.2

Rather, do not support

15.6

14.6

15.1

15.1

14.6

18.4

11.6

21.3

14.9

Certainly do not support the involvement of representatives of large capital in positions of power

25.4

20.8

35.1

21.2

27.0

32.5

17.5

20.8

25.7

Refusal to answer

2.5

2.7

3.2

1.7

4.0

1.2

2.2

1.7

1.7

 15.2 On this card describes the opinions about how now we need to deal with the oligarchs in Ukraine. Which of these opinions is closest to you?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Need to nationalize all the property owned by oligarchs

24.3

23.3

38.1

22.0

24.6

20.1

17.8

15.1

18.6

Only the need to nationalize the property, which was acquired by them illegally

41.2

40.3

35.1

40.2

48.1

37.5

44.2

47.0

36.9

Property should not be nationalized, but the oligarchs have to pay extra for the illegally obtained property

14.4

11.4

11.4

16.8

8.2

17.4

16.0

19.6

23.8

There should be a shadow capital amnesty

5.5

8.9

3.0

1.7

5.0

11.9

5.9

4.2

7.9

The State must respect private property and ensure its protection mechanism

4.3

5.0

3.7

4.0

2.2

5.2

4.7

4.7

6.4

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

9.5

8.2

7.9

15.1

10.7

7.4

11.4

9.2

6.4

Refusal to answer

0.9

3.0

0.7

0.2

1.2

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.0

16.1 Do you agree with that … between Ukraine and Russia there is a war?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

36.8

44.6

28.2

34.8

26.8

60.0

41.0

31.2

50.2

No

48.9

40.6

60.6

43.2

54.1

25.6

41.0

61.9

36.6

HARD TO SAY

13.6

14.1

10.9

21.5

15.9

14.1

17.0

6.9

12.9

Refusal to answer

0.8

0.7

0.2

0.5

3.2

0.2

1.0

0.0

0.2

16.2 Do you agree with that … Russia illegally interfere in the internal affairs of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

54.1

72.0

32.9

66.4

33.5

78.2

61.0

51.0

69.8

No

32.0

21.0

48.8

18.0

40.9

14.1

23.2

41.6

20.3

HARD TO SAY

12.8

6.4

17.8

15.1

20.8

7.4

14.6

6.9

9.7

Refusal to answer

1.1

0.5

0.5

0.5

4.7

0.2

1.2

0.5

0.2

16.3 Do you agree with that … Russia is an organizer of separatist rallies and seizure of administrative buildings in the south-east of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

38.3

55.7

17.3

41.0

21.3

60.3

47.7

35.1

60.4

No

41.4

29.2

59.9

30.9

51.6

21.1

30.9

51.7

21.8

HARD TO SAY

19.1

14.4

22.3

26.2

22.6

18.1

20.2

12.9

17.3

Refusal to answer

1.2

0.7

0.5

2.0

4.5

0.5

1.2

0.2

0.5

16.4 Do you agree with that … Russia fairly protects the interests of Russian-speaking citizens in the Southeast?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

32.6

21.0

47.0

19.5

44.2

14.6

30.6

36.6

23.5

No

49.9

65.6

33.4

53.3

31.8

71.5

52.3

53.0

61.1

HARD TO SAY

16.1

12.1

19.6

23.0

19.6

13.4

15.8

10.1

14.9

Refusal to answer

1.4

1.2

0.0

4.2

4.5

0.5

1.2

0.2

0.5

16.5 Do you agree that … Russia has no effect on what is happening in Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

18.1

16.1

23.5

11.1

18.4

12.9

16.3

19.1

21.5

No

63.2

70.3

54.2

65.4

48.6

72.5

65.9

72.3

64.1

HARD TO SAY

17.1

12.1

22.0

20.7

27.3

14.4

15.8

8.7

13.4

Refusal to answer

1.6

1.5

0.2

2.7

5.7

0.2

2.0

0.0

1.0

16.6 Do you agree with that … Russia is doing everything for the accession of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

40.7

50.2

35.6

39.5

31.0

58.6

41.7

35.9

44.3

No

35.0

33.7

39.9

26.7

29.0

21.6

34.6

47.3

30.4

HARD TO SAY

22.2

14.9

23.8

27.9

33.7

19.4

21.5

16.6

24.3

Refusal to answer

2.1

1.2

0.7

5.9

6.2

0.5

2.2

0.2

1.0

17. Do you consider the incursion of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Definitely yes

19.7

24.0

19.3

19.0

14.4

21.3

17.8

18.6

25.0

Rather yes

26.6

24.3

29.0

25.7

29.0

28.0

24.2

25.5

28.2

It is difficult to say for sure, partly yes, partly no

20.0

15.1

13.9

20.7

26.8

23.3

25.4

21.8

24.3

Rather no

17.3

20.3

18.8

18.0

15.4

12.9

14.3

19.8

9.7

Certainly not

14.8

13.6

18.6

15.1

11.9

13.9

15.6

13.6

12.4

Refusal to answer

1.5

2.7

0.5

1.5

2.5

0.5

2.7

0.7

0.5

8. You support or oppose the introduction of the Russian troops in Ukraine?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support

5.6

3.7

9.9

0.7

6.9

3.5

2.7

7.7

3.0

Rather, support

6.1

1.5

9.4

3.5

12.4

3.0

4.2

7.9

1.7

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

11.8

5.9

13.1

9.6

23.1

5.5

11.4

13.9

7.2

Rather, do not support

15.9

15.3

18.8

17.0

17.4

9.2

14.6

17.1

8.9

Certainly do not support

58.4

69.6

47.5

66.7

36.0

77.9

64.4

53.2

78.7

Refusal to answer

2.2

4.0

1.2

2.5

4.2

1.0

2.7

0.2

0.5

19. What would make you take up arms?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Threat to you and your family

53.2

49.3

59.2

49.1

55.3

48.6

50.4

56.4

47.8

Threat to the territorial integrity of Ukraine

10.4

11.9

8.9

10.6

6.0

14.1

10.1

8.2

22.0

Threat your region from Kiev (civil war)

4.4

4.0

5.4

3.0

6.2

4.0

4.0

3.7

2.7

Threat to your region from Russia

5.4

7.9

1.7

5.7

4.2

10.2

3.5

6.7

9.9

Other

0.7

0.7

1.0

0.5

0.2

0.5

0.7

0.2

1.7

Nothing will make take up arms

31.1

29.2

30.9

33.1

27.3

31.3

35.1

30.2

35.4

HARD TO SAY

5.8

5.9

3.5

6.4

9.4

11.9

4.2

5.7

3.0

Refusal to answer

1.4

3.7

0.0

0.7

1.2

1.0

2.7

0.5

0.2

20.1 What would you like to see the relations between Ukraine and Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

They should be the same as with other states – with closed borders, visas, customs

14.6

15.1

7.2

14.6

7.7

30.3

23.0

16.6

16.1

Ukraine and Russia should be independent but friendly states – with open borders without visas

74.5

78.7

79.7

74.8

72.7

62.0

68.4

70.5

80.4

Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state

8.4

4.0

12.4

4.4

15.9

4.2

5.9

11.1

0.7

HARD TO SAY

2.1

0.7

0.7

5.9

2.7

3.5

2.2

1.7

2.7

Refusal to answer

0.5

1.5

0.0

0.2

1.0

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

20.2 Do you support or do not support the view that your area should secede from Ukraine and join Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support

7.1

3.7

11.9

2.2

13.2

3.5

3.2

9.2

1.0

Rather, support

8.3

3.2

15.6

4.0

17.1

3.7

4.0

6.9

2.5

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

12.5

6.9

17.3

9.9

12.4

6.0

11.9

17.3

11.4

Rather, do not support

16.0

13.1

17.3

17.5

20.6

6.7

19.3

16.1

11.1

Certainly do not support

53.7

71.0

34.9

64.0

31.3

78.7

59.5

49.5

73.5

Refusal to answer

2.4

2.0

3.0

2.5

5.5

1.5

2.2

1.0

0.5

21. Are you ready to go out and support rallies in support of joining your region to Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

13.6

5.2

25.5

4.7

25.1

7.2

6.7

14.9

2.7

No

76.5

89.9

64.6

83.7

60.8

89.1

75.8

75.7

91.1

HARD TO SAY

8.1

3.7

8.4

8.4

11.7

3.5

12.6

9.2

5.4

Refusal to answer

1.8

1.2

1.5

3.2

2.5

0.2

4.9

0.2

0.7

22. When Russian troops invaded the south-east of Ukraine … you intend?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Put up armed resistance to the aggressor

20.9

26.0

11.9

25.9

10.7

31.0

24.9

19.6

36.9

Welcome the introduction of Russian troops

7.0

2.2

12.6

2.5

11.7

4.7

4.9

8.4

1.2

To join the Russian army

2.1

1.2

3.5

0.7

2.5

0.0

2.0

3.5

0.5

Stay at home and not to interfere

46.9

44.1

55.4

48.6

43.2

36.2

39.5

49.8

47.8

HARD TO SAY

20.5

24.8

15.6

19.0

26.1

26.3

23.7

17.1

12.9

Refusal to answer

2.5

1.7

1.0

3.2

6.0

1.7

4.9

1.7

0.7

23. What attracts you in Russia?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Nicola evsky

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Culture

13.4

9.4

14.6

10.4

7.7

10.4

18.5

18.3

17.8

Stability of the economic situation

25.7

11.1

41.8

13.8

34.7

19.6

22.2

28.2

16.3

High salaries and pensions

25.3

9.9

39.6

17.0

30.3

26.6

17.5

32.9

17.6

Stability of power

21.2

10.1

37.9

12.6

24.8

23.6

19.0

17.1

9.9

Other

3.8

4.2

3.0

4.0

3.7

2.5

3.0

4.5

6.9

HARD TO SAY

7.9

10.4

4.7

10.6

9.9

7.2

7.4

6.4

8.9

NOTHING IN RUSSIA ATTRACTS

35.2

55.0

20.0

46.7

21.6

45.2

36.8

30.4

40.1

Refusal to answer

1.9

2.5

1.0

1.7

3.2

2.0

2.7

1.2

0.7

24. Do you agree with the following statement: “In Ukraine the rights of Russian-speaking population are violated”?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

23.1

12.4

39.9

12.8

29.5

9.9

20.0

24.8

11.4

No

71.5

79.7

57.2

82.2

60.8

87.6

72.1

71.8

86.1

HARD TO SAY

4.4

5.2

2.2

4.7

8.4

2.5

6.2

3.5

2.5

Refusal to answer

1.0

2.7

0.7

0.2

1.2

0.0

1.7

0.0

0.0

25. Do you agree with the statement that in your region the rights of Ukrainian speaking population are violated?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Yes

3.8

3.5

5.4

3.0

3.5

2.2

3.5

4.0

1.7

No

92.2

87.9

93.1

94.3

90.6

95.3

91.6

93.3

96.5

HARD TO SAY

2.8

3.7

1.0

2.5

5.5

2.5

3.0

2.7

1.7

Refusal to answer

1.3

5.0

0.5

0.2

0.5

0.0

2.0

0.0

0.0

26. Which of the following statements concerning the Crimea you agree to a greater extent?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Joining the Crimea to Russia – is the result of illegal annexation

44.3

61.1

25.7

53.6

26.8

68.2

46.9

42.8

56.7

Joining the Crimea to Russia – is the result of the free will of people in the Crimea

43.0

25.5

62.9

31.1

58.1

23.3

38.3

44.1

36.9

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

11.5

10.6

10.9

13.8

14.4

7.2

12.8

12.4

6.2

Refusal to answer

1.3

2.7

0.5

1.5

0.7

1.2

2.0

0.7

0.2

27.1 Do you agree with the following statements … The position of the Ukrainian central government during the Crimean crisis was correct, as in the conflict there were not victims?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

19.0

14.4

20.3

14.3

23.6

20.1

19.3

18.1

27.0

Rather, I agree

22.1

20.8

19.8

19.5

22.3

25.1

24.2

24.3

25.5

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

28.7

26.7

32.9

34.8

19.4

29.0

26.7

29.0

31.4

Rather not agree

12.8

14.6

14.6

12.6

8.2

12.9

16.0

10.1

9.7

Strongly disagree

11.6

16.6

9.2

12.8

10.7

9.7

9.4

14.6

5.0

Refusal to answer

5.8

6.9

3.2

5.9

15.9

3.2

4.4

4.0

1.5

27.2 Do you agree with the following statements … Crimea was lost because of incompetence and indecision power?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

44.2

40.6

52.7

42.7

42.2

33.5

41.5

47.8

38.1

Rather, I agree

21.8

19.3

21.0

24.9

20.6

25.6

21.7

22.3

24.0

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

17.8

22.3

16.8

15.6

11.2

21.3

19.0

15.6

25.2

Rather not agree

5.8

4.7

3.2

8.4

4.7

6.7

8.6

6.2

9.7

Strongly disagree

5.1

6.4

4.5

3.7

6.0

8.7

4.7

5.0

2.0

Refusal to answer

5.2

6.7

1.7

4.7

15.4

4.2

4.4

3.2

1.0

27.3 Do you agree with the following statements … Letting Crimea go is collusion between the central government, Moscow and the West?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Totally agree

6.9

7.4

5.7

6.7

3.7

4.0

8.6

6.4

17.3

Rather, I agree

7.1

8.4

5.7

5.4

5.2

6.9

5.7

8.9

14.4

It is difficult to say for sure, partly agree, partly disagree

31.1

31.4

33.9

30.6

23.6

36.2

33.8

26.7

34.7

Rather not agree

19.4

20.3

17.8

17.5

18.4

20.8

19.8

24.3

12.9

Strongly disagree

25.4

22.5

30.0

23.0

27.0

24.8

21.7

28.7

18.1

Refusal to answer

10.1

9.9

6.9

16.8

22.1

7.2

10.4

5.0

2.7

28. Who should be responsible for the loss of the Crimea?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Central authority (Acting President, Defense Minister, head of the SBU, the head of the National Security Council)

61.6

53.7

71.8

61.2

57.8

56.6

60.2

65.1

54.2

Separatist government and parliament of Crimea (Aksenov, Konstantinov)

23.8

23.8

11.6

25.4

22.3

41.9

31.6

20.5

42.8

Russia

19.0

24.3

8.4

22.5

15.4

27.8

21.7

17.1

34.4

U.S. and EU

6.8

6.9

6.9

7.7

6.2

5.5

5.2

8.2

6.4

Other

3.1

3.5

4.2

1.2

4.0

3.2

3.0

2.2

2.0

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

6.6

5.2

7.7

6.7

4.0

4.5

8.6

8.7

5.4

Refusal to answer

6.6

6.9

3.2

4.7

17.4

5.5

5.4

4.7

7.4

29. Polity Ukraine should be …?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Unitary – the area should have the rights that they have now

19.1

19.6

10.6

19.8

12.4

17.9

29.1

23.3

32.9

Unitary, but you need to decentralize power and extend the rights of regions

45.2

51.0

41.1

51.4

34.2

63.0

44.2

39.1

54.5

Federated

24.8

11.4

38.4

15.3

41.9

10.7

17.5

32.2

6.9

HARD TO SAY / DO NOT KNOW

8.8

11.6

8.7

13.6

7.9

8.4

8.1

5.2

5.0

Refusal to answer

2.0

6.4

1.2

0.0

3.5

0.0

1.0

0.2

0.7

30. You support or oppose the view that the position of Governor should be elected?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Certainly support

68.1

67.6

76.2

65.2

63.0

66.7

62.2

68.3

66.8

Rather, support

18.3

19.6

13.9

14.3

22.6

25.6

25.7

15.3

13.4

It is difficult to say for sure, partially support, partially support

8.0

5.9

5.7

11.1

8.4

5.5

7.4

9.9

15.8

Rather, do not support

2.7

2.0

3.2

5.4

4.0

0.5

1.2

3.2

0.5

Certainly do not support

1.2

1.5

0.5

2.2

1.0

1.2

1.0

1.2

2.0

Refusal to answer

1.7

3.5

0.5

1.7

1.0

0.5

2.5

2.0

1.5

 

31. Who, in your opinion, should determine the main provisions of the new Constitution of Ukraine concerning the government, powers of the center and the regions, languages, and so forth?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Ukraine itself

87.7

87.4

86.9

89.6

83.4

92.3

86.7

89.1

91.6

Ukraine with the participation of Russia

6.3

5.0

8.2

3.2

8.4

2.0

8.1

7.4

1.5

Ukraine with the participation of the EU and U.S.

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.5

2.5

1.5

0.7

1.7

Ukraine with the participation of Russia, the EU and the U.S.

0.8

1.5

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.2

0.2

HARD TO SAY

3.3

3.2

3.0

5.4

5.2

2.0

1.7

2.0

5.0

Refusal to answer

0.9

2.2

0.5

0.2

1.5

0.2

1.2

0.5

0.0

32. Imagine, please, that now passes a referendum on whether to join Ukraine to the European Union or the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. You can vote for accession to the European Union or for entry into the Customs Union. What is your choice?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Would vote for accession to the European Union

24.7

38.1

9.4

31.1

11.2

40.4

25.4

26.5

37.4

Would vote for accession to the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan

46.8

29.2

72.5

36.3

64.3

22.1

36.5

46.5

31.4

Would not participate in the referendum

14.8

17.1

8.4

16.8

10.4

19.9

19.5

16.8

17.6

HARD TO SAY

12.3

14.4

8.9

15.1

11.4

16.6

15.3

9.4

11.9

Refusal to answer

1.4

1.2

0.7

0.7

2.7

1.0

3.2

0.7

1.7

33. If next Sunday were held presidential elections in Ukraine, would you participate in the vote? And what would be your choice if in the elections was attended by such candidates?

S.E.

Dnipro

Donetsk

Zaporizhia

Luhansk

Mykolaiv

Odessa

Kharkiv

Kherson

Olga Bohomolets

2.3

2.7

2.0

3.2

1.5

2.5

3.5

1.2

2.7

Yuriy Boiko

0.5

0.2

1.0

0.2

1.2

0.2

0.5

0.0

0.0

Andriy Hrynenko

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.2

Anatoly Hrytsenko

3.4

4.2

2.5

1.2

2.0

5.0

3.5

4.5

6.2

Mikhail Dobkin

7.3

5.9

8.2

4.7

9.9

3.2

3.7

13.9

2.0

Alexander Klimenko

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Valery Konovalyuk

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Royal Natalia

0.4

0.7

0.5

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.7

0.0

0.0

Renat Kuzmin

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

Vasily Kuibida

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Oleh Lyashko

1.1

2.0

0.2

0.7

0.5

2.2

1.0

1.0

2.5

Malomuzh Nikolai

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Petro Poroshenko

18.6

24.8

10.4

22.5

7.7

26.8

22.7

19.6

27.0

Vadim Rabinovich

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.5

0.0

0.2

Vladimir Saranov

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

Petro Simonenko

3.3

2.0

4.7

3.0

5.2

5.2

2.7

2.2

1.0

Yulia Tymoshenko

3.7

5.9

2.0

3.0

1.7

5.7

4.2

4.0

5.4

Sergei Tigipko

9.1

9.2

12.4

10.6

9.2

6.0

10.4

4.5

6.7

Oleh Tyahnibok

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

1.2

0.2

0.5

Oleh Tsarev

1.3

0.7

2.0

0.7

1.5

0.5

1.2

1.7

1.0

Vasily Tsushko

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.5

0.0

0.0

Shkiryak Zorian

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dmitry Jaros

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.7

0.5

0.5

WILL NOT VOTE

11.5

7.4

15.8

8.6

14.6

10.2

7.9

13.6

8.9

Hard to say, is not defined

33.6

30.4

35.6

38.0

40.7

28.5

31.9

29.5

33.4

Refusal to answer

2.5

2.5

1.7

2.2

3.2

1.5

3.2

3.5

1.7

Is Russia Opening a ‘Crimean Front’?

Recent discussions, such as Ukrainian journalist Velentina Samar’s article, Russia has Opened a Crimean Front, assert that experts are now seeing the necessary preconditions for Russia engaging in a ‘Georgian scenario’ with regard to Crimea. In the aforementioned article, Samar claims that there is clear evidence that such an Anschluss is already being carried out. American analyst Paul Goble was kind enough to offer translation and commentary on the scenario as well in his own article.

Samar points out the ongoing Russian pressure from trade wars to act as a lever in the region, its current involvement in the formation of a ‘fifth column’, and the laying of groundwork for military deployment.

Neo Cossacks
Militants & neo-Cossacks at a rally in Sevastopol

With regard to the emergence of a fifth column in Crimea, possible suitors could be neo-Cossacks, the use of Russian biker gangs, or neo-Soviet radicals in general. The issue here which requires further study is just how much popular support such groups could rally, or how effective their mobilization could be. By and large, the majority of the nation’s so-called Antimaidans outside of Kiev have taken place in the cities of Simferopol and Sevastopol, but not much has else has taken place in the rest of the republic. While incredible for their visual symbolism, the effectiveness of these groups remains to be seen. As Goble pointed out recently, “ethnic Russians in south-eastern Ukraine haven’t pushed their own agenda or organized their own groups to push either changes within Ukraine or their own social issues.” The Russian Bloc, if used as a measure of political radicalism in Crimea, is for all intents and purposes is fringe even in the regional scene. While Ossetia was in crisis, Crimea is comparatively sleeping.

With regard to potential military involvement, Samar does allege what would be troubling developments in Crimea at the moment. Vladislav Surkov, former Deputy Prime Minister and noted supporter of Chechen leader Kadyrov, who is also known for his his involvement in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, has recently been visiting Crimea to speak with the political leadership. The discussions, she says, concern the construction of a bridge across the Kerch Strait, connecting Crimea to Russia. This, while potentially a long-term play, would allow for theoretical troop movements to take place. When Russia invaded Georgia, it did so via the Roki Tunnel.

Umland’s recent article The EU should prevent the “Georgian scenario” in Ukraine, also weighs in on this topic, pointing out that notable pro-Russian politicians and activists has begun petitioning for Moscow to intervene in Ukraine to “protect” the inhabitants of the Black Sea peninsula, which holds a Russian ethnic majority. The echoes of the need to protect Russians abroad misleadingly points to the Georgian scenario and here is why: South Ossetia’s population prior to invasion was 3% Russian (2,100) citizens. Abkhazia, by comparison, also had no ethnic Russian minority of note. The pretext, instead, was that much of the population (illegally) held dual Russian citizenship. A much better historical comparison of ethnic liberation as a pretext for invasion would be the Nazi occupation of the Sudetenland, in Czechoslovakia. Also, a Georgian scenario would require an armed civil conflict between the Ukrainian military and Crimean separatists, a Sudeten scenario would only require allegations of oppression.

So, is Russia really opening a Crimean Front?

Motyl illustrated recently the ineffectiveness of a separatist or occupation scenario. The ruling regime benefits more from the threat of separatism in order to receive concessions, than from actually leaving the country. The Crimea is an economic sink on the state budget, receiving considerable subsidization from Kiev. A pseudo-independent Crimea would require substantial investment and subsidization from Moscow – a Crimea within the Russian Federation would be even costlier. South Ossetia has a population of 55,000 people, while Crimea’s population is nearly 2 million. That is also 2 million potential less pro-Russian voters in Ukrainian borders.The realpolitik conclusions here are straightforward from Russia’s perspective. Perhaps it is too early, and sensational, to speak of a ‘Crimean Front’ having already been opened.

Motyl: The Secessionist’s Bluff

Alexander Motyl explains why threats of secessionism in Ukraine are a bluff which would only negatively impact the Donbas regime as well as Russia, and how Ukraine’s divisions are no different than any modern state:

Has any country ever been “one” country—especially twenty-odd years after its establishment? The United States was a loose agglomeration of former colonies—and, oh, yes, there was that slavery thing between the North and the South. Canada? Ditto. Otto von Bismarck’s Germany? Mazzini’s Italy? Ditto, ditto. And how about Russia? It’s always been a multinational empire marked by enormous regional, ethnic, and confessional diversity

Personally, I have no doubt that Ukraine without its southeast would be much stronger, more stable, and more prosperous than Ukraine with its southeast. The southeast’s rust-belt economy needs either to be shut down entirely or to be refitted at the cost of trillions of dollars of non-existent investments. Moreover, the statistics plainly show that Kyiv subsidizes the Donbas, and not vice versa. The southeast also has a low birth rate, a high death rate, low life expectancy, high energy consumption, and high AIDS and crime rates. Last but not least, the southeast is home to the ruling Party of Regions and the Communist Party. Remove the southeast and Ukraine’s treasury experiences an immediate boon; its demographics, energy consumption, and health improve; and its politics automatically become more democratic and less corrupt.

Read the full article

Goble: Ukrainian Activism Highlights Russian Submissiveness and thus Infuriates Russians

“Nothing so infuriates a Russian as does indisputable evidence of his own slavish submissiveness both in the east of Ukraine and in the post-Soviet state as a whole,” according to one ethnic Russian commentator, and thus Ukrainian activism has challenged the self-assessments of Russians and driven them out of their “comfort zone.”

What the Maidan has done, Viktor Yadukha says, is divide people not between supporters and opponents of the Ukrainian protest but between “those who believe in the possibility and necessity of ‘achieving liberation by their own hand’ and those who don’t believe in that”

The latter, he continues, generally “believe in conspiracies,” a belief that allows them to feel about not taking action on their own behalf. “The more global this secret behind the scenes action is assumed to be … the greater justification there is [in their minds] for sitting on the couch” rather than going into the streets.

This is an attitude and approach that underlies all assessments of what is going on. “Sooner or later, we Russians,” he says, “will have to become involved with the arrangement of life in our own country,” especially given its problems. “But how will we be able to do this if the archetype of national behavior is [someone] ‘who very much loves to talk back to the TV.’”

It is important to note that ethnic Russians in south-eastern Ukraine haven’t pushed their own agenda or organized their own groups to push either changes within Ukraine or their own social issues. Instead, they have “preferred to wait” for the bosses, any bosses to decide. “For these people as for the overwhelming majority of citizens of the Russian Federation, everything is decided in the capital.”

On the basis of his experience in his native Sevastopol, Yadukha says, he is confident that “if Yanukovych falls, then the authorities and militia of south-eastern Ukraine will raise the black-red flags of the OUN [Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists]” and then be ready to move against those who had supported Yanukovych and been part of the anti-Maidan.

Ethnic Russians wherever they may be are ready to follow orders, he continues, recalling the half-joking comment of dissident writer Aleksandr Zinovyev to a group of Sovietologists 40 years ago that the best way to defeat the Soviet Union was not to organize the population but rather to put their own person in as general secretary of the CPSU.

“I don’t know why we [ethnic] Russians are this way,” he says, and whether the Mongol yoke, serfdom, 1917, 1938 or 1991 are to blame. “But it is obvious that the ‘Russian vertical’ presupposes the submissive subordination to any change of course,” however radical, for the boss is seen expressing “the will of God” and any opposition is “from the anti-Christ.”

Read the full article

Timtchenko: The West’s Deadly Illusion of a Divided Nation

The problem is that much of the media’s referenced information is coming from the outdated 2010 presidential elections or even from the 2004 Orange Revolution data. Understandably, this is majorly explained by the available data that the media looks at. For example, Western scholarly political science research on Ukraine can be characterized by four distinct peaks since the 1980’s: the first peak was in 1994 and can be explained by the interest in the region after the collapse of the Soviet Union; the second was in 1999 and is explained by Kuchma’s economic reforms and the signing of the PCA agreement in 1996 (which came into force in 1998); 2005 was the third because of the Orange Revolution; and the fourth peak was in 2009, explained by the unexpected turnabout of Yanukovych’s presidency. Yet, little scholarly work has been done on Ukraine since then. During the past 6 months – the picture has dramatically changed. As for the past two months – the harsh division is simply not there anymore.

Read the full article

A Nation Divided?

Much has been made of Ukraine’s West v. East paradigm, but is it a valid demarcation of the country’s political leanings? The issue with post-Orange Revolution political discourse is that the Kuchma and Kravchuk eras have largely been forgotten while commentaries reach to the historic past to find reason for electoral leanings in the Soviet and even Imperial era. This is incredibly short sighted as we have several, common era elections in independent Ukraine’s history to look at to see if this trend holds up. And that’s the problem – it doesn’t.

1991 saw Viacheslav Chornovil go up against the heavily favored Leonid Kravchuk with the latter taking all but Galicia. 3 years later, however, we see Galicia warm up to Ukraine’s first president (presumably voting for the lesser of two evils). The presidential elections of 1999, though, saw another about face with Kuchma now taking the West while the Communist Party grew unevenly in the center, south, and east. It’s only when we get to the Orange Era that Ukraine fixates itself on an immutable east-west axis between the democratic opposition and the Party of Regions. The same Party of Regions, mind you, that was supported by Kuchma; thus completing his east-west-east lap around the country.

Now when looking at the animated map below, what stands out? For one, Crimea, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Kherson can’t make up their mind, voting Kravchuk, then Kuchma, but finally settling in on the pro-Russian Communist and Regions.

[one_sixth]idea of a predictable West too goes out the window[/one_sixth]

Similarly, Galicia is too the only collective of regions in the West that has voted for 5 different presidential nominees in the 5 elections. Factor in that the region is now resurgent in its support for Svoboda, and the idea of a predictable West too goes out the window.

Kirovohrad, Poltava, Vinnytsia, and Chernihiv all voted Kuchma, then Communist, then Yushchenko/Tymoshenko. Here we see a complete turnaround from “pro-Russian” to “pro-European” stereotypes. These four provinces are proof positive that hearts and minds can be won and swing states are alive and well.

Ultimately, the 2015 (or sooner) presidential elections, if free and fair, could very buck the trend that we’ve seen since 2004. The fact of the matter is, simplistic divides, while easy to represent in the media, don’t always hold the test of time. The United States is notorious for its Red v. Blue state battleground, but while the Northeast is typically Democrat and the South is typically Republican, there are always swing states and always variety. Ukraine is no different. With the ever changing, volatile political landscape of 2013 and beyond, there is just no telling where to draw the east-west line in the sand just yet.

Ukraine elections map